The car ownership rate per capita is often radically lower in higher density areas well served by transit (or in more walkable mixed use towns) than in lower density communities served mostly by cars. This is a well-documented evolution. Forty percent of Westenders do not own cars. The rate is 60% in Manhattan. Downtown Vancouver is a very walkable place, and is also well-served by transit connections to the region. It’s inconvenient to drive a car there.
Families moving to outlying suburbs often underestimate the higher cost of road transportation and multiple car ownership and also blow their time budgets by spending ~75 hours a month sitting behind the wheel. These costs have attached values, and sometimes they exceed or cancel out their savings in housing.
Much has been made of the influx of foreigh money into vancouver housing, but not much has been made about the transfer of wealth from Boomer to their now-grown kids to help them with a downpayment or even purchase a condo outright and let them stay for minimal rent whikle they get on their feet. I suspect its a helluva lot of money.
Marine Gateway and Telus Gardens, two of the more recent redevelopments that can be said to be based or influenced by nearby rapid transit, sold large majorities of their units to locals. Telus employees bought in droves in the latter case. Many developers are building an increasing number of units without an associated $35,000+ underground parking stall in their projects near transit. That does not jack the price. Presales also result in local investors who provide a substantial rental stock to the market.
I believe you are conflating the foreign investments in exorbitantly-priced luxury large lot detached homes, waterfront penthouses and condos with screaming views with average condos, and are underestimating traditional supply and demand. We have a number of unexplored less costly options to the detached home on standard lots which comprises 70% of the private land base (rowhouses, low rise, detached homes on half lots …) that continue to to constrict the supply of ground-oriented housing in light of even moderately increased demand, therein increasing the average price.
I noticed that your linked Stats Canada chart is two years out of date. Considering that the largest outmigration from BC was to Alberta (but ironically just a bit higher than the inmigration of Albertans to BC in peak economic periods), and that the US fracking output and steady-on production of oil from the mid-east has caused a world wide oversupply and a deep discount to the price of oil last year (but even today it’s almost 300% higher than its low point in the 90s), Alberta”s economy has tanked and they are now experiencing a net outmigration, mass unemployment and huge reductions in housing value. It’s also very illuminating that BC’s 2014 economic growth was a fraction higher than Alberta’s, which is demonstrative of the stability of diversification. I’d sure like to see a chart for 2014.

New post on The North Van Urban ForumGetting to Yes: Notes on the Transit Referendumby northvanurbanforum

Former North Van City Council candidate and NVUF alumnus Tony Valente shares his views on the upcoming transit referendum, as addressed in an article to the Grand Boulevard Residents Association:

We all know we are very fortunate to live in one of the most beautiful and successful regions in the world. We are consistently at the top in rankings of the most liveable cities in the world completed by the Economist and others. While we held the top spot in North America in 2014, our lowest score was for infrastructure. The category looks at the quality of our road networks, public transport, and utility provision. Our position at the top, and our quality of life is threatened.

Years of growth in the region have enriched the diversity of our community, but we have failed to make the necessary investments to strengthen public transportation and road infrastructure. Those of us who live on the North Shore are especially sensitive to this issue. We can only really connect with the rest of the region through our two busy bridges and the SeaBus. Now we are being asked to vote on a congestion tax through the Metro Vancouver Transit and Transportation Plebiscite (or referendum). It does not look good for the yes side, and as a result not for our region or quality of life either.

Background on the Referendum

Between March 16th and 27th ballot will be mailed out to registered voters. Voters may also ask for a package anytime between March 16th and May 15th at midnight. Plebiscite Service Offices will open on April 13th (more information is available athttp://www.elections.bc.ca/) and all ballots must be received by May 29th at 8pm.

You can vote if you are: a Canadian citizen; 18 years or older on or before May 29, 2015; a resident of BC for at least six months on or before May 29, 2015; registered to vote in BC; and living in a Metro Vancouver municipality.

A brief preamble about what will be funded by the new tax is followed by the ballot question which states:

Do you support a new 0.5% Metro Vancouver Congestion Improvement Tax, to be dedicated to the Mayors’ Council transportation and transit plan?

Voting Perspective

I encourage all of you to participate in this plebiscite and vote. I will be voting YES. I believe in the future of our region and I wish that it continue to be liveable and vibrant. We must enhance public transportation to allow the disabled, the elderly, and those who cannot drive, especially those using transit to get to work, better access to social interaction and their work places.

Some believe this is just about providing more buses and SkyTrain service, but it is much more than that. I drive to work almost every day, but there is a lot for motorists to gain through this plebiscite. The plan allows $750 million dollars to be allocated to road upgrades and maintenance. It provides for a new Pattullo Bridge as well. Benefits specific to the North Shore include 50% more SeaBus service, rapid bus routes across the North Shore and connecting to Downtown Vancouver, and Metrotown. It also provides for expansions and improvements to Phibbs Exchange and Lonsdale Quay, 2700kms in new bike lanes, as well as 30% more HandyDart service for our most vulnerable neighbours. All these transportation options are great for motorists who benefit from less competition on existing roads.

The Defence of Translink

The NO side has made a strong emotional argument that we are taxed enough, and that TransLink should not be rewarded for its inefficiencies. We do pay a lot of taxes, but this is one we cannot afford not to pay. Implementing this plan will create substantial economic value for our region according to the C.D. Howe Institute. In reality, Translink is not as inefficient as we are lead to believe. According to Vancity Buzz “there have been multiple reviews of TransLink’s expenses in recent years, including an independent study commissioned by the TransLink commissioner and another study by the B.C. government’s Ministry of Finance”, which resulted in TransLink trimming its budget by $26 million. Based on a comparison of how many transit service hours $1 million will purchase, TransLink is the most cost-efficient public transit operation for a Canadian metropolitan area. Every $1 million in TransLink’s annual operating budget for transit provides 7117 transit service hours. The next most efficient agency is Edmonton’s with 7089 hours.

Some of Translink’s successes, none of which anyone is telling you about, include:

A mode shift – out of cars into transit, walking and cycling – that is unmatched in North America. The number of trips by transit is up 80% since 2000.

By far the highest per capita transit use among other cities our size in North America – three times more than Portland, the next highest city.

The third-highest per capita transit use in North America, after only New York and Toronto.

The lowest-operating-cost light rail network in the world, more than covering operating expenses from fare box revenues.

The Canada Line built on time and on budget and beating revenue targets – projected to have 100,000 daily riders by 2013 but hitting 120,000 by 2011.

No one likes a new tax, but we need this plan and it needs to be paid for. Using the PST as the means of collecting means that tourists and visitors to the region pay just like residents. As a resident I like that. Remember that we pay no PST, and would not pay the 0.5% congestion tax on groceries and restaurant meals, and other items.

Plan B

You will hear local politicians tell you there is no Plan B if the plebiscite fails. According to Gordon Price, Director of the City Program at Simon Fraser University, the status quo is not Plan B. Price explains that TransLink’s base plan is fully funded to maintain total service hours, but that still means declining service levels for customers because without funds for expansion, limited hours will likely be reallocated away from lower demand routes. Over ten years, about the time it might take to pass another referendum, service levels would be where they were in about 2003. In that case, Gordon foresees that “a decade of expansion in the 2000s would have been lost and an increasingly densely populated region would have fewer options. There is no Plan B just default.”

In this weekend’s National Post Charles Montgomery, author of Happy City, wrote “by most measures, a “No” result in the plebiscite will make the average person poorer, sicker, less free, more frustrated and, yes, less happy. NO is not an option if we value the liveability of our region. It is not good enough for the Lower Mainland, or our community.

northvanurbanforum | March 17, 2015 at 21:35 | Tags: North Van Urban Forum, referendum,transit referendum, Translink | Categories: Uncategorized | URL: http://wp.me/p27eYG-r0

That attempt at a jab looks suspiciously like a jerk of your knee.

Childish belligerence? Pot, meet kettle. At least BH often provides links and an intelligent argument.

We’ll have to agree to disagree. I think foreign immigration and investment has had a huge effect on Vancouver real estate, and Boomers have to help their kids because of that, not the other way around. Without foreign immigration, our population would be declining.

Agree that Alberta is tanking, and BCers went there for the boom. Even if the data is 2 years old, it still means Vancouver real estate was rising 2 years ago while net inter-provincial migration was negative. With people moving back, it should go up even higher, but keep in mind, the people moving back are unemployed people. They’re leaving because they lost their jobs.

Agree, whole-heartedly, that Translink needs more money. Disagree, whole-heartedly, that developers don’t have to contribute anything, but someone buying music on iTunes does.

“I’ll repeat it again. (Whatever you think I said before.) The government is re-itterating it’s commitment….”

But that isn’t what you said before, at least not the point under discussion. You said, and I quote,

“The Minister also clearly stated that many projects will proceed, regardless of what the vote result is.” You went on in a subsequent post to use the Patullo Bridge as an example.

But what the Minister said was, and I quote my post here,

“The Minister clearly stated that many projects will proceed, regardless of what the vote is, and subject to the Mayor’s Council raising their local 1/3 portion some other way.”

See the difference? It is pretty black and white. You then went on to talk about all these projects proceeding if the vote was no. You ignored the part about the 1/3 local funding.

I don’t see the relevance of personal working status to the discussion. On the off chance you aren’t trolling on that one, if you want to compare T4 slips you will need to let me know in advance, and show up at the next beer night.

I also don’t see the relevance of who supports local charities in this discussion. Try to stay on topic. Otherwise people may accuse you of trolling again.

OK, BH and MB, you “win”.

This forum is toxic, and I’m out of here. May check back in (for a quick non-participatory scan) a few months from now just to see how you are coping with the utter backwardness and lack of intelligence of the great unwashed majority.

Again, your willful ignorance knows no bounds. You know this vote is not their idea and you know this option is not their preferred option. So why do you persist on lying? What are you trying to achieve?

@spartikus,

“Perhaps the winds have changed and the public would be more amenable to a vehicle levy today, but I kinda think not.”

I agree.

However, assuming that the outcome of the plebiscite is consistent with the current polling, we are in the process of discovering that the public is not amenable to a .5% increase in the PST either I suspect they (we) will be similarly unhappy with an increase in property taxes.

Sooner or later, someone is going to have to step up and take an unpopular step if we want to undertake the desired transit expansion.

OTOH, maybe the public really doesn’t want to invest in transit.

In that case, why do they need to replace the Massey tunnel? Certainly if it is solely to accommodate larger ships by building a bridge then the port should pay for it, full stop.

Daily weekday ridership of the b line is 55,000 plus. However, the traffic on Broadway isn’t that bad. another article stated it would take 50,000 cars off the road… that’s almost the entire daily ridership now.

I do not think a Broadway subway would have 320’000 riders a day. The Canada LIne serves a much larger population connecting many metro residents. The subway would go to arbutus and Broadway – other than ubc, heading west does not connect you to much.

Of course, once it looks like coal harbour without the water and many of the small businesses have closed down it will be a different story.

If by legion you mean the vast majority of people who realise that unfortunately the transit improvements that may benefit them will come with a higher cost of living and possible displacement to benefit a small minority who will profit massively from their loss, then you are probably right. I think lee outlined exactly what people are against when he said this.

The unbridled growth, glass towers, lower wages, higher housing prices, all unasked for. That’s what the NO means. NO to all of it.

If that spoils your fun, you’ll have to look for sympathy elsewhere.

I just realised I made a gender assumption based on the spelling of Lee’s name. Lee, if I was wrong, I apologize.

You seemed to be implying you pay more taxes, whether on earnings or property taxes. But it was apparently a troll attempt.

I was not at all disgusted when I drove my car this week, thank you.

And again with the bike lanes and the donors. I didn’t ignore your question, I pointed out that it was irrelevant.

But you did ignore the entire point of how you misrepresented Minister Stone’s comments, and suggested that the infrastructure in question would be built anyway. Now that is revealing.

What was their first choice?

…Even if you actually don’t know that, a quick Google would get you there.

I’m uninterested in your digressions. You consider identity and affiliations important. You make your comments from behind a screen name. This is a disconnect that speaks volumes to me. What charities choose to do with their money is irrelevant to the topic at hand. But I’ve seen little enthusiasm from you to address the many instances of similar deflection and refusal to defend your position when its flaws are highlighted, so I’ll not be holding my breath waiting for you to engage in a principled debate.

The only relevance is that I was at the press conference and heard the announcement. You misquoted. Several times. And you still haven’t acknowledged that, even when it has been pointed out to you. Your response was to start calling people names. How’s that working for you?

The announcement about more buses was for the rest of BC, not for Metro Vancouver. Again, see the difference?

Why do you keep going on about who donates to who? If you don’t want to acknowledge the societal health benefits of active transportation, fine. You are in the minority.

And the topic at hand is Translink.

You haven’t been paying attention. You don’t upset me because I have zero expectations you will debate with integrity. I’m a little disappointed that your behaviour goes unremarked by some of the other regular commenters here. I do find your tendency to make bold statements and then run from them (see the great Singapore Retreat that you had to engage in as an example) a bit frustrating. But I’ve always found fools maddening.

One half of one percent is a higher cost of living as opposed to a healthier citizenry, less car ownership, more pollution, the potential conversion of our scarce agricultural land to subdivisions,the privatization of transit, and greater dependency on fossil fuels?
I would call that Backwards Math 101.
And “unbridled growth etc. etc. etc.”. C’mon, Jen. You know that’s just rhetoric.

Nemesis, California is still recovering from Proposition 13, a number worshipped in the annals of most anti-tax organizations over the decades since. I would hope Canadians would not go so far as to cut taxes to the bone and suffer the consequences of inadequate police, fire and paramedic services in their zeal for “direct democracy” which has become the code word for government by referenda led by chickenshit politicians.

So you are another one of those right wingers that want a dictatorship. You want those in Victoria to tell the mayors of Metro Vancouver that they do not get to chose. OK. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.

You do realise that here we are having a regional plebicite, as opposed to the Calif props which become law for the whole state.

Still keeping the first choice a secret are you.

There is no Vancouver Bike Association. The last time I heard a similar mistake was when misinformation was being propagated about the Hadden Park improvements.

It will be like this Jen, all the way down Broadway to Jericho.

http://www.vancourier.com/real-estate/vacant-lot-sells-for-15-8m-on-cambie-street-1.1800039

Then there’ll be nice reasonably priced condos for the working families, with lots of bike storage. From the 30th floor you’ll be able to see all the way to Nanaimo.

I kinda think you’re right.