Frances Bula header image 2

What do the transit plebiscite results actually mean?

July 6th, 2015 · 80 Comments

Oh dear. I come back from Paris, a transit paradise, to this: 62-38 vote against funding new transit through the sales tax.

I have to say, I was surprised by the results. Not that it was No, but that the numbers were so far apart — that means that in months of campaigning, with bus ads and telephone townhalls and you name it, the Yes side was not able to move the dial at all.

And now, the problem is, how to interpret the results. So many possible explanations: just the hate-on for TransLink, antipathy to sales tax, resentment over the way the Vancouver and Surrey mayors grabbed the leadership of the mayors’ council, resentment over the provincial-style, robocalling campaign that the Yes side’s Vision-dominated team ran, not the years needed to really run an effective campaign, a bad plan, people voting No because they thought the plebiscite was a terrible idea, dislike of the plan for a subway for Broadway, dislike of the plan for light rail for Surrey, anger because “transit sucks in my suburb now so why should I pay more.”

Makes it very easy for everyone to draw the conclusion they like.

And now what? I fear that what will happen is a focus by particular politicians and groups on getting the two big mega-projects going — Vancouver and Surrey — which could potentially be paid for, at least in part, through development around the lines. But the rest of the region, which needs buses and upgrades, will get nothing.

 

 

 

Categories: Uncategorized

  • A Taxpayer

    Now you are flogging the skeletal remains of a dead horse. It is a moot point, because the comparison is nonsense, but the information is not even consistent. Greek debt represents a balance at one point in time where the bank numbers are flows (and only inflows, not outflows) and do not represent balances. No credible person would ever say that Citibank borrowed $2.5 trillion dollars anymore than they would say the homeowner in the example I gave borrowed $500,000.

    By all means, repeat this grossly misleading account of what occurred during the financial crisis, and I am sure there is no shortage of people in the progressive camp who will gladly believe it and pass it on. I am surprised that you stick to this narrative you must know gives a false view of what happened as I generally have found that your positions in the past have been solidly researched even when I have not agreed with your conclusions. You must really feel compelled to demonize the banks even if it takes a blatantly misleading and meaningless chart to do it.

  • MB

    Six million from several pockets is a lot, but not all was public money.
    However, $12 million in public money spent on an unnecessary plebiscite was a waste that could have paid for several buses or expanded the HandiDart service significantly.

  • AlexB

    So, Six Million WASTE by mayors is ok, but not the cost of running the Plebiscite? How more biased could you be?

    Province and Mayors AGREED to have a plebiscite on funding, first was supposed to be a multi-choice option that was turned down by Mayors to a Yes/No answer (bad call), and THEN on top of all of running a plebiscite they went out and SPENT $6M on lobbyist? Vision political party making robocalls? TV advertising? Billboards? Radio advertising? Youtube/Facebook/Google advertising? Are you kidding me?

    One was to run and operate the logistics of the vote, the other was just PURE WASTE, enriching the pockets of Vision lobbyists and political party. I think the latter is 10 times worse, and should have never ever happened!

  • MB

    The entire plebiscite and all money spent on it by all parties was a waste.

  • spartikus

    In fact, if they had presented the plebiscite in that context (vote for a sales tax or face property tax increases)

    In fact, if the question had been restricted to a choice between funding sources then people like A Taxpayer would have complained about not being given the opportunity to vote No.

  • spartikus

    One has to admire the chutzpah of someone who can extol the collective wisdom of the electorate in one breath while berating their choices of elected officials in the next.

  • MB

    @ Kirk:

    This is the second most unaffordable place to live in the entire world. It seems like the wealthy urban planning elites can’t just understand that.

    First, the vast majority of any planning department personnel consists of technical and support staff. Hardly elites.

    Second, here are the local housing numbers. Note how they are broken down according to housing type. How many detached homes on open lots do you find in Hong Kong? How about comparing apples to apples for a change?

    MLS benchmark housing price index of Greater Vancouver:

    Detached: $1.12M (Metro), $1.09M (Vancouver East), $1.6M (Van West)

    Apartments: $400,200 (Metro), $330,300 (Van East), $528K (Van West)

    Townhouses: $506,900 (Metro), $562,100 (Van East), $805,500 (Van West).

    Source: http://www.rebgv.org/home-price-index

  • MB

    http://telf.ca/_media/stats/2013-02/rebgv%20average%20price%20graph.jpg

  • MB

    In many ways, demand for condominium apartments in the Vancouver area is being sustained by the sky-high prices for detached homes. The majority new households are financially unable to live in a detached home. By virtue of being the most affordable housing type, therefore, apartments are for many Vancouver-area households – especially the young and first-time
    homebuyers – the main housing option. Strong interest in condominium apartments is clearly evident in the resale market where they represented nearly 40% of all existing home sales in 2011. This strong interest can also be seen in new construction, where multi-family dwellings represented roughly four out of five housing starts in the area in 2011.

    RBC Vancouver Housing Market (2012)

  • MB

    There were several docs out on the unfair bank bailouts. In one of them they outlined how Greece was sold down the Agean on suspect deriviatives by Goldmand Sachs and others just before the whole toxic paper mountain collapsed. The banks got their fees and profits while these nations were left holding the debt.

    The same thing occurred with Ireland, Iceland and a few other nations who should have known better. And knowing better is key here. Greece has an added reputation for a vast underground economy where corruption and avoiding paying taxes is a national sport, and therein they have undercut their government by tens of billions of Euros a year at the same time the government foolishly piled on the debt.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_evasion_and_corruption_in_Greece

    Perhaps the EU financiers have been too demanding and conservative in their requirements for deep austerity in exchange for bailouts. But there is a point to be made here that this is in the context of a lot of corruption, a lack of accountability and poor fiscal acuity.

    The bailed out banks were filled with charlattans who are still flogging the same damned precept that having extreme debt-to-asset ratios and playing chicken every hour with other’s money is part of the culture, and are still in precarious financial standings. But I doubt they will ever get bailed out again because there just ain’t enough devalued money left in the world or public will to socialize the losses.

    Greece may default and go back to the drachma, and there will be a lot of suffering as the result. But a significant part of that stems from the behaviour of its own citizens, businesses and politicians. Insurmountable debt is a hard but fair teacher, especially when you are forced to start over and consider building a better society.

  • MB

    I pay a toll every time I take transit. Two zone fares are higher than the PM toll. In fact, transit has a 50% operating cost recovery rate in the Metro. Would that the road system covered even a fraction of that to offset its massive drain to taxpayers.

  • Kirk

    Are you claiming that debt levels and housing affordability are not an issue in Vancouver?

  • spartikus

    With respect MB, Ireland and Iceland had a different problem (they allowed their banking sectors to grow larger than their respective governments & GDPs could backstop).

    Yet Iceland has recovered quite nicely. A therein lies a lesson: Iceland maintained it’s own currency. They also didn’t engage in ruinous austerity and did crazy things like actually hold their bankers to account. As in threw them in jail for crimes committed. Greece needs to generate revenue in order to pay it’s creditors, but the slash and burn policies insisted by the EU have crashed it’s economy and it’s revenue.

    The Readers Digest version of all this is this:

    1. Prior to adopting the Eurozone, Greece was a mild to moderate credit risk and paid interest rates that reflected that accordingly. As you mention, Greece has problems. Greece has a recent history looming over it like a shadow. But so do other countries.

    2. Greece joins the Eurozone and creditors start lending it money at lower rates in the mistaken belief the European project wasn’t a house of cards. ie. Germany and/or the ECB would stand by the debts of member countries as the Bank of Canada would, push come to shrug, for the provinces here. And yes, Greece borrowed money. Because, you know, interest rates were low. What better time?

    3. After 2010, creditors start charging Greece high interest rates again while the EU simultaneously demands austerity. Greece can no longer afford to even borrow money to service it’s debt.

    As a side note, Greece’s debt to GDP ratio in 2008 was 100%*. Now it’s 172% and yet they’ve implemented all the austerity that was demanded of them.

    If Greece, like Iceland, had maintained the drachma then the Greek Central bank would have had the option to “print money” as they say and/or devalue we would likely not be here. If the EU had acted in the spirit it was set up for and ECB had acted like a real Central Bank instead of as a proxy for Germany we would likely not be here.

    But a significant part of that stems from the behaviour of its own citizens, businesses and politicians.

    And yet only one of those three are being made to pay. The simple fact is the Euro was an idea half-implemented at best and fundamentally flawed at worst. Was Greece a middle-income state with governance not up to, say, German standards? Yes. Did it start acting like a high-income state with German-level governance after joining the Eurozone? Yes. Is this the heart of the issue? Extenuating, but ultimately no. Spain was running surpluses and had debt to GDP ratio of 30% when the crisis hit. And yet they’re close to being in the same boat.

    The EU will do what it will do. If they not worried about 25% unemployment, so be it. If they want to let radicals run riot in the streets of Athens, so be it. Just don’t be surprised if some future Greek government decides to throw in with the Russians or Chinese.

    *This sort of debt to GDP ratio is not historically unusual. Japan’s is currently 237% and no one worries about Japan. Most major countries including the UK and US have had much higher ones, particularly after the war. Did they slash spending? No, their economies grew and as a result those debt ratios shrank.

  • MB

    In hearing Hepner and Robertson, it looks like the mayor’s strategies may now be the opposite: to build their own silos. we could hope for more.
    In a perfect work the third largest city in Canada would have its own elected and accountable regional government. Some enlightened local politico or Metro manager could suggest this, and if the idea has legs, then immediately put Metro staff on it and turn first and foremost to the grassroots with deep and extensive public consultation. Consulting the province should be avoided until the process has had a year to work itself through and the most viable choices are defined in a detailed plan. With the intransigence of Victoria in imposing a needless vote on a high selective issue and with historically toying with the former democratic structure of TransLink, you don’t want Christy et al anywhere near this process.
    Extensive workshops or a citizen’s assembly along with professional facilitators and researchers could compose a detailed plan that addresses the electoral methodology (proportionality is key, in my view), taxation powers, Metro-city jurisdictional coordination, etc etc, and look at examples in other regions like London — or like the GTA on how NOT to amalgamate. The plan could be put forth as a referendum proposal in the next set of municipal elections once provincial permission is obtained.
    And that is where the challenge rests. Christy will be afraid of a regional government that represents half the populaton of the province a trillion dollars of economic activity each decade, and therein challeges her power. But she will also be hard pressed to deny that same demographic their right to self-determination and democracy within reasonable regional bounds, which in some ways may take some pressure off the province. In denying it she will create a Constitutional issue where she will have to assume an anti-democratic stance. And with the region acting in a politically strategic way by developing a publicly supported detailed plan or defined set of options beforehand, she will have some serious ‘splainin to do if she says No to an elected local government.
    That action could be taken to the Supreme Court as a sacrificial Constitutional case where provincial lawyers will need to espouse their anti-democratic arguments, but also where increased regional governance should receive defined limits.
    I suggest there is no valid reason why elected an regional government cannot be realized here.

  • MB

    I’d sure like to see a Danish budget breakdown to back up your “facts.”

  • MB

    @ Alex B:

    It was and still is planned to sell density along the line so developers could extend their condo building machine, selling to foreigners, for a decade longer!

    Presumably you have some analysis to back up your assertion?

  • MB

    … if I see that they would start TAXING foreign buyers and developers who are the main culprit of our housing affordability,…

    So simple supply & demand has nothing to do with it?

    Blame the foreigners. Don’t need any research to prove it, just a lotta bombastic rage.

    Good luck with that.

  • MB

    LOL!

  • MB

    Debt is what you allow. Apartments are affordable.

  • Kirk

    We will have to agree to disagree. I think families in Vancouver are suffering from housing affordability and high debt levels; you do not. I will try to remember this when discussing future topics with you.

  • MB

    I wouldn’t ascribe blanket asumptions about your thoughts to you. Please don’t apply them to me.

    Been there, done that re: debt. Twenty-seven years of it in a myriad of forms at the family level. It was an education to say the least.

    Re: housing affordability. Condo presales still generate blocks-long lineups with people who realisically gave up on owning detached homes.

    But this has little to do with a transit plebiscite.

  • Kirk

    I see that you editted your comment, no longer stating that apartments are affordable. I’m just going to stop now.

  • A Taxpayer

    “With respect MB, Ireland and Iceland had a different problem”

    “Yet Iceland has recovered quite nicely. Therein lies a lesson: Iceland maintained it’s own currency.”

    Partially true. Iceland’s recovery was facilitated because it had its own currency but Greece, as you acknowledge, had a different problem and if they had their own currency it would have eased the pain but not enabled them to avoid it altogether. Devaluing the drachma would have made imported goods more expensive and Greece does not have a domestic
    industries to take up the slack or benefit from more competitive exports. Their problem is a primary budgetary deficit (before debt service) that the EU is not
    prepared to continue to fund that deficit unless steps are taken to bring it in balance, particularly when the government deficits are incurred to provide Greek citizens a standard of living better than those who are going to have to pay for it.

    Once again, you throw out irrelevant comparisons
    (although not as egregious as your “bail out chart”) by introducing the debt level of Japan. Japan’s debt is funded domestically and it actually produces goods that the rest of the world wants to buy. It is equally ridiculous to compare post war economic conditions with Greece’s situation. (and you think there was no austerity in the UK post WWII?). Populations were growing unlike in Greece which has one of the lowest birthrates in the world. Combine that with emigration prompted by high
    unemployment and you have one more constraint on economic growth.

    Clearly, you are more interested in furthering your anti capitalism agenda than actually thinking about how to solve a complex problem that considers the taxpayers of the EU as well as the citizens of Greece. But for socialists, there is no problem that someone else’s money can’t solve.

  • Warren12

    Amalgamation is a double edged sword.

    It could be argued the same folks that voted down the transportation plan would also vote in Rob Ford 2.0.

  • MB

    No. You modified what I actualy said, which was:

    Apartments are the most affordable housing option here.

    and

    Condo presales still generate blocks-long lineups with people who realisically gave up on owning detached homes.
    Nowhere did I say apartments are unaffordable.

  • MB

    This is why I suggested that the idea of an elected regional government should be expored first with the people / voters through extensive workshops or a citizen’s assembly where the Ford Fiasco, amongst many other things, would be studied. The structural conditions that allowed the GTA form of superamalgamation and Rob Ford’s excessive power must be made impossible to replicate here. How does London (UK) do it by comparison to Toronto?

  • Kirk

    You said it, and then you edited it away after I called you on it. I have the email from Disqus (attached screen capture). And, Frances has all the edits since she’s the mod. But, you know, it doesn’t matter. I’m just going to drop it now. I’ll assume you just mis-typed and then corrected yourself, which is fine. Just try to add a comment whenever you edit your previously posted remarks to clarify what you changed. It’s a common Internet courtesy. A lot of forums ban people who go back and change their comments.

  • MB

    Geez. You’re really splitting hairs, Kirk. Of course I edit comments. Editing is part of the act of writing, otherwise typos and lack of clarity will abound. If edits were not allowed then Discus wouldn’t have an edit button. And if you recall, that was the old Bulablog where corrections had to follow as separate posts.

    Now, “apartments are affordable” and “apartments are the most affordable option here” contains the same inferences to apartments and affordability. There is little differnece between the two statements except the clarification of place.

    So what?

    You still haven’t clarified whether you are comparing Hong Kong apartments to Vancouver detached homes on 4,000 ft 2 lots in your sweeping generizations about affordability.

    PS: I just edited this comment to apply correct spacing. I assume that will not be punished.

  • Kirk

    Ok

  • A Taxpayer

    One of the better comments from your recent offerings although off a pretty low base line. Amusing (or at least MB thought so but perhaps he was just demonstrating solidarity) but doesn’t really offer anything of substance. But it also didn’t present grossly misleading information which has to count for something.