Frances Bula header image 2

Some condos are selling like slushies in hell but not all

April 3rd, 2012 · 70 Comments

Marine Gateway at the foot of Cambie. Sold out in a day. Telus Gardens in downtown Vancouver. Sold out before the public launch. Silver in Metrotown. More than 3,000 people signed up waiting to buy.

That makes it seem as though it’s all boom times in the condo/real-estate world again. Not so, my friends, as my recent story noted in our coverage of the Telus Garden sell-out. (Real estate figures that came out after I wrote this story Sunday make that even more clear.)

People are flocking to projects close to transit in areas that promise them access to lots of services. Not so much elsewhere.

Categories: Uncategorized

  • Joe Just Joe

    The empty condo myth has been debunked. It’s been discussed here repeatedly yet some people keep bringing it up. The numbers from BC Hydro show 5.5% of condos empty that number though would also include people on extended vacations and units between tenancies. Considering the normal vancany rate of rentals of probably 2-3% that certainly doesn’t leave very many empty units.

  • Everyman

    JoeJustJoe 51
    It appears Fabula debunked your supposed debunking quite some time ago:

    “…Here’s my latest reporting on this issue. I talked last month with the city’s longtime housing centre director, Cameron Gray, who has forgotten more about housing policy than most people in Vancouver will ever know. He’s been unable to verify the 18,000 number, but he does say, in spite of that, that there is a problem of empty housing units in the city. No one ones exactly how many there are. The last census in 2006 showed there were 20,641 empty houses, condos, duplexes and whatever in Vancouver proper. Approximately 4-5,000 of them are downtown. (NOT all 18,000.) No one knows whether those are second homes, investor properties kept empty or what. But, says Gray, they’re a worry….”
    http://francesbula.com/uncategorized/the-ongoing-story-of-the-empty-suites/

  • Roger Kemble

    Trust me there are scores of empty suites . . .

    Here’s something to de-bunk the debunked debunkers . . .

    http://revolutionarypolitics.tv/video/viewVideo.php?video_id=18435

    . . . every country. the BRICS the US and probably more are desperate to get rid of their paper and Vancouver real estate is among the privileged recipients.

    I’m amazed at how mean blogistas can be to one another when they haven’t a clue what’s going on!

  • rf

    Allowing scare land and housing resources to be scooped up with non-Canadian dollars (or maybe I should call them “non-taxed” Canadian dollars) really emphasizes the “hollowing-out” of Vancouver.
    We have allowed the conduits for these offshore dollars (just because the daughter of a wealthy offshore person signs the papers, doesn’t mean it’s not offshore money) to push working people of all classes to the perimeter or into to small spaces.
    Be it a doctor, lawyer, accountant, money manager…..if you are in your 20’s or 30’s now, you just can’t financially justify the $2.5-$3.0 million house that previous generations of the same professions could easily have afforded (even at 14% interest rates).

    Hearing some of the ALR defenders last night cry bloody murder about the Port lands out in Tsswaassen being optioned to a developer really cracked me up. The irony of it!

    Steeves was going on about the intention of the ALR for “food security”.
    What none of these dinosaurs want to remember is that the ALR was a direct response to the climate change fears of the early 70’s.
    These fears were about global cooling and the possibility of a coming mini ice age.

    Today, for Canada, global warming would actually lead to more agriculturally viable land at higher latitudes…..which flies in the face of the “food security” dinosaurs.

    Yet i guess that if you asked the ALR commission if they believe global warming is a threat, they would all raise their hand.

    Yet if they believe it’s a threat, there’s really no need to defend keeping the ALR.

    Meanwhile, the city gets hollowed out by offshore dollars funnelled through non-income tax paying Canadian residents.

  • Rico

    @ Everyman 52, interesting one of the commentors in the piece you referenced provided a link to the Stats Can data and suggested comparing to other Canadian cities. Vancouver has a 1-2% higher rate of vacant dwellings than the other cities I looked at (except economically depressed areas). This raises some questions to me, is there a particular reason (obviously some here may suggest it is offshore speculators….but it could be other factors such as levels of unemployment as well)? The next question is do we consider an extra 1-2% a problem?

  • Dan Cooper

    rico (Apr 4, 2012 at 9:09 pm) notes, “I do not understand why someone would buy a property and then not utilize it. If you are intending to keep it for a period of time but not using it you are losing lots of money by not renting it out.”

    I do understand the thinking on not renting it if you plan to sell it again later. Essentially it comes down to: renters can be quite hard on a property, thus reducing its resale value, and expenses can be high and unpredictable. I know people who swear up and down they will never be landlords again, after dealing with the tenants from hell who almost destroyed a house inside, as well as just not paying rent. When I sold my old house elsewhere and bought my condo here in Vancouver a year before arriving, I rented the condo out on a nine month fixed-term lease through a property management firm. The tenant was decent enough, and I did come out financially ahead of where I would have been not renting at all. But, with payments to the property manager, $90/hour-plus-travel-and-tools calls to tradesmen every couple months to do things like use a plunger on a stopped-up toilet (I was never quite clear why this was my responsibility, but being on another continent working at the time it was hard to push the point), replacing the refrigerator when it went out, and just general wear and tear to the carpets, walls, counters…I was far from making a profit. For an older condo like mine, the wear and tear is not such a terrible thing, but if you were buying one of these shiny, new, supposedly-ultra-luxury (at least in a stereotyped, Donald Trump kind of way, and maybe truly) places, would you want to risk it? And what if the renters – unlike mine – don’t pay their rent on time, or at all? More expenses all around.

    Of course, if the bubble bursts it doesn’t matter how nicely kept your apartment is; you’re going to lose on the investment if you really were buying just to hold and flip.

  • Reverend

    I think that main problem is the income of foreign buyers. They invest heavily and condos are one of the best options for them. This can probably explain the vacancy rate of bought departments.

    The housing bubble is something that can´t be treated as a separated part of the economy.
    The condo market is steadily growing in many Canadian cities and it became a new trend of living. So I´m not surprised, that people choose it more often, which drives the prices higher.

    Low mortgages ratio drives the real estate market to the situation, that is even more complicated (as being explained in More Regulation in the Mortgage Market).

  • MB

    @ rf #54 re: ALR.

    Man, ya don’t know of what you speak. In fact, your interpretation of the ALR is patent drivel. Further, your definition of “land” may well be led by the prefix “Disney.”

    The Agricultural Land Reserve is based first and foremost on soil classifications. It’s intention is to preserve the teeny, weeny rare bits of dirt that are capable of growing food in BC. These bits comprise like — jayzus, hold on to your hat! — 4% of the provincial land mass.

    I know you prefer to eat your pesticide-saturated Mexican lettuce, but that doesn’t mean we have to kill the multi-billion dollar BC agricultural industry and roll out the tacky, cheaply built, subsidized … er … “affordable” subdivisions filled with plaster palaces, malls and super-sized roads over what little food-growing land we have left.

    Global cooling >>>global warming >>> pineapples in Prince Albert? That’s a Class A leap in logic, rf.

    What do you know of the soils under those swaths of boreal forest north of the prairies? Pobably nothing, I suspect.

    It’s thin forest duff over Canadian shield rock, pal. Hardly the once magnificant, now eroded black prairie gold underlying the waving fields of wheat to the south that once got our hearts beating in time with the anthem.

  • brilliant

    @MB 57-I guess thats why greenhouses cover much of that valuable land and the farmers were just given a carbon tax credit to keep burning fossil fuels.

  • MB

    @ brilliant, greenhouses are an important part of agriculture in a temperate climate. Love to see the Canadian orange someday … especially under glass on the sunny prairies.

    Moreover, you can build greenhouses almost anywhere, but I’d say using cheap industrial lands would be the most ideal in order to preserve the soils in the ALR.

    Most greenhouses burn sawdust, brilliant. Not that I agree with that, especially seeing that potentially huge quantities of industrial waste heat is not very far away at the Burns Bog dump where methane from rotting garbage could be burned to create steam for both power and heat and distributed to nearby greenhouse operations. This is not dissimilar to the Central Heat Distribution network downtown.

    The carbon tax could help pay for job-creation and green initiatives like that instead of allowing the raw methane to vent into the atmosphere with over 20 times the punch that CO2 has as a greenhouse gas and absolutely no added value.

  • FactChecker

    @MB – quite how the question of condo sales evolved into a question of landfill gas use is perhaps beside the point. But as you raised it, “Since September 2003, a beneficial use system owned by Maxim Power Corporation has been operating at the City of Vancouver Landfill at Burns Bog. Maxim pipes LFG to CanAgro Greenhouses, and at the greenhouse burns the gas generating 5.55 MW of electricity for sale to B.C. Hydro and 100,000 GJ/year of heat for sale to CanAgro.

    The project results in the recovery of approximately 500,000 GJ/year of energy, the total energy requirements of 3,000 to 4,000 homes, and results in a reduction of more than 230,000 tonnes per year CO2 equivalents or the emissions of approximately 45,000 automobiles. The City of Vancouver will receive revenues of approximately $400,000 per year for the duration of the 20- year contract period.”

  • Julia

    how many of these empty condos are sitting in buildings where the strata corp has limited the number of rentals allowed?

  • jenables

    Has anyone else noticed while driving on the Georgia viaduct that of the row of towers by the skytrain, the one closest to the viaduct appears to be close to half empty? There could be something I am missing, but entire floors look blacked out to me. I have noticed this while walking the dog too, rows of houses in pitch black. It’s eerie! You would have a hard time convincing me that someone living there would not even have a porch light, TV, computer, anything left on. so it wouldn’t surprise me in the least. . And it’s ridiculous to pretend this false demand doesn’t have a negative effect on our city as a whole. High cost of living equals more poverty. More poverty means more desperation. More desperation brings more crime. So even if you are pleased to see your investment doing well, keep in mind it brings a high social cost.

  • jenables

    I think the tower in question would be on milross street

  • Lewis N. Villegas

    The empty condo myth has been debunked. It’s been discussed here repeatedly yet some people keep bringing it up. The numbers from BC Hydro show 5.5% of condos empty that number though would also include people on extended vacations and units between tenancies.

    JJJ

    Awh, I’ve been so busy setting up my lights on timers, keeping the fridge plugged in, and the thermostat at a healthy Hawaiian mean temperature that I’ve just not had time to reply sooner than this…

    The anecdotal evidence I pick up suggests that we can’t just accept a 5.5% figure. I mean, we’re away from home at least 20 days out of the year, and that’s only counting time spent between Portland and Vancouver.

    This is not the eye of the storm. But, there is no denying that we are building “density” to flesh out investment portfolios globally.

    I don’t have a problem with that. What I decry is the need to bring downtown tower-and-podium into the neighbourhoods.

    That just smacks of the process run amuck!

  • Roger Kemble

    rf @ #54

    What none of these dinosaurs want to remember is that the ALR was a direct response to the climate change fears of the early 70′s . . .

    Where on earth did you pick up that McTwaddle rf? GW, CC, AGW. HCGW hadn’t even been invented back then!

    I was there quite close to the seat of power: Mary Rawson and Bob Williams were the main drivers.

    Their purpose was to put a break on the likes of Genstar’s manic drive (Jeez are those guys still at it?) to buy up the Fraser Valley for future speculation.

    Climate change? For gawds sake that’s a recent invention. But don’t worry they’ll find something else to bamboozle us gullibled out of our money long before we admit we’ve bin had!

  • eric

    If a condo sells out in one day could it be argued that it was underpriced? I know it sounds hard to believe in a market like this..

  • MB

    Thanks FactChecker (#61).

  • evilfred

    Marine Gateway did NOT sell out in a day. Real estate agents were pre-selling properties before the supposed first day, and some agents were selling the properties on craigslist afterwards. It was just more Rennie smoke and mirrors.

  • Andrew Brunner Realtor

    I agree 100% that purchasing a condo near the transit lines, and near all essential urban amenities is always a great investment. Provided you are paying the right price per square foot, and the builder is not selling based on future values.