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Saturday in Vancouver: Parties fight for the crucial 5,000 voters who make the difference

November 18th, 2011 · 42 Comments

That’s what it could come down to, folks — the 5,000 votes that make the difference for the bottom five spots on council. More here.

Categories: Uncategorized

  • Everyman

    I see the latest Forum poll (in the Province) shows a pretty tight race: Robertson 49% vs Anton at 45%. However, I have to question the results showing Anton leading Robertson 64 to 32 in the under 25 voters! That would be a dramatic turnaround.

    Accoridng to Justason’s website she was conducting a poll this past week. Why wouldn’t she have released the results?

  • Silly Season

    How ’bout if I find you 12,600 voters?

    “But pollster Mario Canseco of Angus Reid, said that he doubts either party has GAINED supporters.

    “I don’t think either have done a fantastic job of trying to grow the base or improve turnout,” he said. That’s more crucial for the opposition, because it needs to attract new voters to win.

    “A low turnout” – which Vancouver is likely to see once again – “benefits the incumbents all the time.”

    I’m not sure why Mario thinks it will be a low turnout. You can’t know that till votes are counted. And while it looks like a record number voted in the advance polls, that’s not always an indicator. But let’s back up for a minute…

    It’s not that the parties haven’t looked for new voters. The question: where have all the voters gone, between the elections of ’05 and ’08? They are the “disappeared” of the civic election scene.

    The vote count, as a percentage of eligible voters, from 2005 to 2008, DROPPED by 3% (33% to 30%). Based on using an stable, eligible voter number of around approx 420,000 (I’m sure it differed somewhat fom election to election, but don’t know by how much) during those two election cycles, that would account for your “need to find 5,000”. So, if I’ve done the math right, it’s actually 12, 600 net “missing” votes.

    I think that the Vision party membership topped out at the last election, when everything was fresh and new.

    So, if that 3% comes back, I think it would tend to favour the NPA, in so far as council seats go.

    What would bring these voters back—or add new ones, for that matter? ‘Occupy’ has indeed sucked the oxygen out of the election—does it benefit the NPA? If people are happy overall with the performance of Vision, then, yes, expect a low voter turn-out.

    With that last comment, it’s upsetting to me to know that people are not engaging with the voting process. Must it always take a “huge issue” to get people to exercise their precious franchise?

    Even if you’re happy with things as they are, you should come out and vote that feeling. And, IMHO, you don’t have any right to bitch if you can’t get your arse out the door to register either your pleasure or displeasure with the way things are run. We live in a flabby and lazy democracy, don’t we?

    Myself, I just have a feeling that total voting numbers as a percentage of eligible voters will be up from 2008. Of course, it may be just my pipe dream, wishing to see more robust and wakeful electorate.

    You heard that prediction here first! 😉

  • Morry

    Visited three voting stations .. .poked around a bit asked a few questions and over heard a few conversations.

    Vision be the winner., mayor Gregor very popular with the ladies.

    slam-dunk. incumbents win

  • Bobbie Bees

    I just voted! I need a lollipop.
    I think to make things more interesting, they need to have the elections set up so that if you pick ALL of the winning candidates, you get a trip for two to Spain.

  • david hadaway

    Here’s my voting experience, make of it what you will.

    The lady two ahead of me in the line for a ballot paper had never heard of the Capital Plan vote and asked the attendant whether she should choose Yes or No.

    The lady immediately before me had to be told twice that she could only make one vote for mayor.

    The man in the next voting booth leaned round, showed me his ballot and asked whether he had done it right.

  • Mary

    News 1130 is showing Robertson at 54% , Anton at 35% and Other at 11%.

  • Jonathan

    Mary #6:

    Your comment could easily be misread as suggesting that News 1130 has released the result of an early exit poll. On the contrary, I believe the results you are referring to arise from the “Today’s Poll” question “If you could vote in the Vancouver election, who would you vote for?” with results collected by email, phone or tweets.

    As such, these figures have no real bearing on the actual votes currently being cast. The election is still open, and I doubt any responsible news outlet would try to post exit poll results until they close.

  • Bobbie Bees

    All I can say is thank gawd that Randy Helten hasn’t even shown up.

  • mezzanine

    bike lanes!

  • spartikus

    As of 10:05pm, despite spending big money, it looks like the NPA is only going to get 2 council seats.

    There’s going to be a lot of navel-gazing in the weeks ahead, but I am of the belief that adopting the tone of City Caucus was a huge mistake.

  • Chris Keam

    Bobbie:

    You’ve probably hit upon a sure-fire way to increase participation. Every registered voter who casts their ballot gets a chance to win a dream house!

  • Adele Chow

    Vision Vancouver elected all of its candidates! This is a real endorsement of the slate’s record and progressive platform. Mayor Robertson’s leadership has clearly been popular. He has a significant mandate to lead the city over the next 3 years.

  • callmecrazy

    spartikus… Yes, CC RIP (we can only hope now).

  • Dan Cooper

    So, for better or worse, three more years of unchecked Vision government on council and both boards. Hmm.

    Following on spartikus, various thoughts:

    The NPA’s highly negative campaigning did not seem to help them. In fact, the people who were attacked the hardest during the campaign, by the NPA or others (e.g. Robertson, Barnes, Bacchus) seem to have done the best, and the biggest attackers to have lost.

    COPE’s coalition with Vision seems to have helped the latter much more than the former.

    The NSV apparently achieved nothing except to pull votes from the left and/or right (though which more would be interesting to know), leaving Vision standing.

    The Greens’ collaborations with the NPA and endorsements from the right did not bring them great success. Farewell, M. MacKinnon. Of course M. Carr appears to have made onto council, which is notable, but she will presumably have near to zero influence.

    The proposal that the city is split north/south at 16th and Kingsway seems tenuous, at least on the Kingsway side of things: http://vancouver.ca/electionresults2011/index.htm

    After weeks of the media frothing and falling over themselves about how the continued existence of Occupy Vancouver would be a huge issue, and the election would be very close…well, apparently wrong on both counts.

    [ And on a lighter note, our own M. Buday achieved a special distinction. Rah rah! ]

  • gmgw

    At least we know how George Affleck is going to be spending most his time during Council meetings for the next three years: Explaining what’s going on to Elizabeth Ball.

    You think I’m joking, don’t you?

    If voters had to elect someone else from the NPA, they coulda elected Bickerton… They coulda elected McCreery… instead… look what they went and did.

    I will never understand the workings of the right-wing mindset in this city.
    gmgw

  • spartikus

    I will never understand the workings of the right-wing mindset in this city.

    Affleck. Ball.

    Letter A. Letter B…

  • Everyman

    A shame it is still too lopsided. COPE must be questioning their strategy right now, it seems they were not the second choice of Vision voters and obviously weren’t going to be for NPA voters. Now barring a recount are all but shut out of civic government. I have doubts they can survive.

  • gmgw

    @spartikus #14:
    The thought had occurred. I was trying hard to convince myself that that wasn’t a factor– after all, most NPA supporters can read at least as far as the letter “C”, so that should have seen two more NPA Council candidates elected.
    gmgw

  • Bobbie Bees

    I vote that we tar and feather Anton and put her in a cage down at Occupy Vancouver. People can poke her with sticks for the cost of a $5 dollar donation to the OV fund. 3 pokes for $5 or 7 pokes for $10. We should also set up Mike Klassen in a dunk tank. Just I’d add some piranhas for added effect. Again $5.00 get’s you one ball. $20 would get you 5 balls.

  • Dan Cooper

    I think COPE will survive. After all, which other serious party would attract their core voters, or anyone meaningfully to the left of Vision? Now a changed strategy, on the other hand, may be in order. Of course, as I’m not a member of COPE, it’s not my call!

  • Bobbie Bees

    Spartikus, I have an even simpler explanation. On Friday’s Courier wrapper, Elizabeth Ball was wearing red. So she stood out and was easy to see. George Affleck was standing beside Ball…..
    Actually, screw it, I like your explanation better.

  • ThinkOutsideABox

    Approx. 4 million spent on both parties with turn out of 34.6% of 418,878 voters according to 24 Hours https://twitter.com/#!/24hoursvan/status/138146481529036800 – or approx. 145K voters.

    COPE gets wiped off the horizon, and Vancouver gets the government it deserves.

    Meh.

  • gmgw

    Can anyone remember the last time there were no COPEers on Council? I can’t. Frances?? Maybe it’s not as long ago as I think..

    By the way, who the hell is George Affleck??
    gmgw

  • Silly Season

    gmgw and sparty.

    I think Elizabeth got a big part of her vote from arts groups. Hardly “right wing”, which of course is a convenientt way foropposition to frame election

    The story of this election: whatever happened to the “Vision/Cope’ coalition?

    Why did Vision members not stick to the deal? Angry that Tim got that spot from Cadman? Plumped their own vote to ensure that their 7 elected?

    Come on, enquiring minds want to know!

  • gmgw

    @Silly Season:
    Ball was completely ineffectual at aiding “arts groups” or speaking out for arts funding during her previous tenure on Council. I expect more of the same. Anyone naive enough to vote for her for that reason is in for a rude awakening.As I’ve said, she’s been riding the coattails of her Granville Island theatrical tenure for 15 years. I have had a number of opportunities to observe Ball at close range, in various settings over the years, and I can tell you that unless things have much improved, as a flag carrier for the NPA she is going to be a complete disaster, which in terms of further disenfranchising the NPA is all to the good, but in terms of resisting the Vision agenda (something I find equally desirable) will be equally disastrous. Bickerton or McCreery would have been far more intelligent choices for NPA supporters; each of them had the potential to be real contributors to Council business and either would have provided far more effective opposition. If ever there was a case of people (NPA supporters) electing the government representatives they deserve (Ball), this is it.
    Mark my words…
    gmgw.

  • Andrea C.

    David H. – ha, ha …. polling district 23 or 24, by any chance?

    I see NSV’s “no backroom deals”, “revolutionary” endorsement of McCreery, Garossino, COPE & Carr turned out to be the SLATE OF DEATH. Well, except for Carr, who’s going to have fun thinking about what streets to ban bicycles from while being completely ignored by everyone else.

  • Silly Season

    Don’t disagree that Bickerton or McCreery would have made great choices.

    Trying to figure out where her vote came from.

  • Andrea C.

    Silly Season:

    The Affleck/Ball vote may simply have come from Vision voters who had not intention of honouring the COPE portion of the slate and filled out the first three names on the ballot to round things out.
    …..Actually, I haven’t got the foggiest.

  • Richard

    YES!

  • IanS

    Disappointing result, from my point of view.

    I tend to agree with Spartikus that NPA’s very negative “city caucus” approach proved ineffectual. The other big factor, IMO, was the split in the anti-Vision vote. While Vision was so successful in eliminating its potential vote split through it’s deal with COPE. I can’t imagine COPE is very happy with that right now, but Vision must be.

    In any event, congrats to Vision and Robertson. This is a huge victory for them.

  • Roger Kemble

    Well Vancouver you can thanq your lucky stars Gregor and his team made it back: no doubt his soft peddling around OCCUPY was part of the reason. Bike peddling too!

    Most of us support OCCUPY if only subliminally!

    Greenest city/fiscal responsibility: forget it, they’re bigger than the city. The city has absolutely no control.

    Green? More tankers thru the Narrows for sure: Harper needs his petro-dollars.

    Mary Hill By Pass grid-lock ‘til Johnny grows balls and gets over his five-wheel-fetish.

    Vancouver’s was a FIRE economy. Now it has obtrusively segued into a FART (Fiddling (as in books), Art, (forget Elizabeth B) Regrets (as in lost potential), Toadying (as in historic) economy?

    OCCUPY is on the case!

    Gregor can do precious little about developers, land use and STIR: because of FART. It’s the only game in town. They and their architects are an abomination.

    Gratuitous supplications coming out of Busy, Geller, Nigel, Patricia et. al., not with standing Marpole locals are in for a surprise: thinq High Street (wot, can’t remember?) and make sure Gateway people don’t pull a Brookfield-Zuccotti-Park on you.

    What happens then to 75th @ Granville?)

    High Street maybe? Huh, it’s still private property yunno! And when you do your morning cuppa (wot, still can’t remember) make sure you dress right!

    Councilor Reimer made her point succinctly “Vancouver planning is broken!

    So is all planning as taught in current academia (SCARP, I know from experience): a new planning paradigm is long over due.

    There may be hope!

    Robertson is no Bloomberg. And I’m beginning to wonder if Jim Chu is another Ray Lewis.

    My hat, off to Mayor Gregor for treading lightly.

    PS Is VPD having a tough time nailing the “rioters” because half their photos are of planted provocateurs? OH NO, NO: Jim is bigger than that!

  • Roger Kemble

    This is for Glissie . . .

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JPHNuAAZDE

    . . . to help him get over it!

    I sailed passed the Mull when I was a kid of eighteen . . . way before I knew Glissie.

  • RossK

    Re the A….and the….B….discussed above.

    Is that not, perhaps how Ms. Anton clung to her council seat in 2008?

    But here’s the real thing – Clearly the C0fV has no 905 belt. And thank the goddesses for that!

    .

  • callmecrazy

    To even run for an elected office is such a huge deal on so many levels. A big appreciation to ALL those that took the chance and stood forward.

    But what I don’t understand is why all of the NPA candidates accepted being part of such a negative nasty campaign for so long (Sean?), why they didn’t say enough is enough lets change tack and take the high road, deal with the real issues (i.e. not around a $5K grant on wheatfields)… and then to end the campaign, the pinnacle, with the team standing with a man in a chicken suit on the lawn of city hall (gosh what were they thinking)… but then I guess at that point they knew they had already lost (internal pollling) and felt it would be a fitting final image???

    But there is always the next election.

    and thankfully citycaucus is shutting its doors… RIP.

  • Otis Krayola

    @gmgw #23

    A little bird told me that, even as Elizabeth Ball was leaving last night’s defeat party, she was heard musing about a run at Robertson in 2014.

    Must be something in the water.

  • Sean Nelson

    @RossK #31
    “Clearly the C0fV has no 905 belt. And thank the goddesses for that!”

    Amen, brother!

    I voted for a little more diverse council but I’m generally happy with the way things turned out, and I guess two seats for the NPA counts as at least a little progress towards more diversity.

    I’m especially glad to see that the voters were sensible enough to see through the rather sad attempts to turn bike lanes, chicken coops, wheat-growing projects, and even Occupy Vancouver into huge campaign issues.

    And I certainly agree – running for public office is hell, but as a society we need those people to stand up and take the heat. A big thanks to everyone who ran!

  • spartikus

    By the way, who the hell is George Affleck??

    He was once the President of the PAC of my school my daughter attends, but he wasn’t very visible during the campaign.

    Re: Whither COPE, or should that be Wither COPE – again this will take weeks to digest, but you’ve just gotta think dumping moderate Cadman for a divisive love him or hate him figure like Tim Louis stuck in the craw of moderate voters. Damn shame, because Ellen Woodsworth (whether you agree with her politics or not) is an individual with high integrity and passion – she would have been a great opposition councillor (as surely the alliance is kaput forever now) holding VV’s feet to the fire from the left.

    But what I don’t understand is why all of the NPA candidates accepted being part of such a negative nasty campaign for so long

    Based on conversations (caution: hearsay!) I know of at least one who was not. I’ll let them speak for themselves.

    The NPA campaign was uncomfortably divided into at least 2 camps behind the scenes and I think this was at least partially due to having trouble getting people to run in the first place -> some who finally did throw in their hat were a lot more moderate than others. It was like an expansion team where you drafted the parts that were available even if they didn’t fit together on the ice.

    For us, the peanut gallery, it would great if this all spilled out in to the public, but the recrimination will likely, alas, be behind closed doors.

    I predict out of office Suzanne Anton will, like Peter Ladner, sound a lot more moderate. And appealing. I don’t know why politicians don’t just be themselves more often – it’s the skin they’re most comfortable in.

  • Bobbie Bees

    I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall down at the St. Regis Hotel. Rob MacDonald must have been shrieking up a swear storm like none other. I think today I’ll go ride back and forth in the bicycle lanes with a Vision Vancouver banner attached to my bike.

  • Linda Solomon

    Bobbie: That is the funniest image. Please do, but please let me know when and where so I can send a photographer.

  • mezzanine

    I don’t see why politicians aren’t trying to be more centrist – making change incrementally but being level-headed. VV IMO embodied that the most. I’m pretty happy with the results and I’m happy with what my fellow vancouverites did. 🙂

    and one reason why I voted mainly for vision is that they are not COPE. It would be interesting to see what COPE does next time, but IMO the centre is where it’s at.

    And the NPA? ‘Rob Ford’s Team’ maybe put them down a bad road. As with Rob MacDonald, if his public comments are to guide us.

    Can I has a bike lane now?

  • Silly Season

    @Andrea C. #26

    LOL! Best answer on this thread!

  • gmgw

    @Otis K, #33:
    My God– one unexpected win and now she thinks she’s Joan of Arc.
    I suppose a more positive way to look at it would be: “Oh good, we’re only going to have to endure her for three years”.
    gmgw