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Rennie says squall over social housing could cost taxpayers money

October 15th, 2010 · 48 Comments

Allen Garr at the Courier caught condo marketer Bob Rennie in a talkative mood this week, where, from London, he slammed development consultant Michael Geller for his public comments about social housing at the Olympic village. In it, he calls Geller a “sniper” who is “taking out children” while aiming at social housing.

And he says Geller’s comments are damaging the ability to market the project — something that could eventually have a cost for everyone.

As most of you know, this is part of a rolling debate that has been going on for more than a week now, since Michael started commenting to various media, me included, that the social housing at the village was becoming a liability that could affect the prices for luxury condos.

He didn’t say social housing in general was a liability, but that the perception that the hardest to house (i.e. people from the Downtown Eastside with multiple issues) might move in, since the Portland Hotel Society was known to be one of the non-profits bidding to operate the buildings, might be a liability.

That generated scathing comments from Jim Green in the Vancouver Sun, a column from Globe writer Gary Mason slamming Green, and columns from Geller in the Sun and on his blog refuting Green’s criticisms. Not to mention, of course, bloggers weighing in. Plus more clarifications from Michael through the Vancouver Observer. I’m sure I’m missing some bits and pieces elsewhere.

This is a complicated fight because it mixes up so many different things: facts about who will actually live in the village’s social housing, people’s deeply held beliefs about what affects the value of real estate, people’s equally deeply held beliefs about whether segregated neighbourhoods are acceptable, idealism about how the city should work, business assessments about how to market housing.

What got Michael in trouble is not that he was expressing the secret wishes of the Non-Partisan Association, as Jim Green claimed. As anyone who knows Michael realizes, he expresses his views completely independently of any political group or ideology — to a fault, some might say.

(Full disclosure: He has been one of several people in the development field whose opinions I have regularly sought over the years to understand issues; I’ve been invited to many social events at his house, though have never managed to make it.)

He’s an honest and thoughtful guy, and almost constitutionally incapable of being mean — something he himself acknowledges can be a liability.

But what got Michael in trouble was that he was speaking as a development consultant who has been in charge of high-end projects, like the Bayshore development in the 1990s.

He expressed the view that is common among many who develop and market high-end projects, which is that, if you want to sell people a sense of exclusivity and luxury and charge them a very high price for it, you can’t have people around who obviously don’t fit the image.

That might mean people in social housing. At the Bayshore development, it did — Michael negotiated to have social housing for families moved offsite. He also designed a project that was not particularly suited to any kind of families, whether in social housing or not. That didn’t fit the kind of development the Bayshore owners were trying to create.

But that kind of marketing calculation is confined to social housing. The people seen as potential problems might also mean renters of any description. And it might also mean even buyers who are at the low end of the market.

That’s not being prejudiced. It might be inaccurate or based more on perception than reality  — I haven’t found any study yet that corroborates that, even though it’s an accepted truism in the marketing industry — but it’s based on an economic/marketing calculation. As George Wong of Magnus, currently marketing River Green in Richmond, told me, developers of very high-end towers deliberately design their towers so that there are no small units anywhere. They’ll stick to a minimum of 2,000 square feet, to ensure that there are no low-end buyers in the building.

That doesn’t happen with every building. There are plenty of examples in Vancouver and elsewhere of the first-time buyers populating the lower floors of condos, while the people who cashed in their West Van houses are perched in the million-dollar penthouses at the top.

That kind of concern about property values and how the demographics of people living nearby will affect them is hardly restricted to developers, though. Every residents’ group that has protested against basement suites, townhouses, apartments and laneway houses — and heaven knows that there has been no shortgage of that throughout the region in the past 20 years — is at heart operating from that fear. I’ve heard it umpteen times at public hearings, the fear that having renters in the area will affect the value of the investment that is the largest one that many people have.

It’s also why many strata councils don’t allow people to rent out their units — precisely because of the concerns from the majority of owners that having renters in the building will affect property values.

In the Downtown Eastside, advocacy groups also worry that even one building of moderate-income renters or buyers will start to drive property values up and force out the very poor who live there. That’s why the Carnegie Community Action Project opposes every kind of development in the Downtown Eastside except for additional social housing. Even buildings that are aimed at affordable rental or affordable home-ownership geared to people making service-industry wages are on their no-go list.

The problem for many of us is that we don’t have the information to judge whether any of this is true, so fear ends up playing a part in our assessments.

Some academic could do a lot of good in this city by studying the impact of economic mixing to see what really happens. There is much more of it than we sometimes realize.

In spite of the heated battle over basement suites in the 1990s, the reality is that basement suites are now an accepted fact of life throughout Vancouver — west side and east side. So are laneway houses.That creates an economic social mix similar to having social housing formally designed in.

As well, there is social housing studded throughout the city — from the social housing across the street from the Bayshore Hotel in Coal Harbour and from Urban Fare in the Concord developments to older projects near the Royal Vancouver Yacht Club at Jericho Beach. Even at River Green in Richmond, there will be a chunk of the development designated as affordable housing, if I understand Richmond’s mandatory policy on inclusionary zoning correctly.

What is the real impact of that on property values? We don’t know. By and large I suspect it’s been non-existent, because most people don’t even realize social housing is in the neighbourhood. But that kind of obliviousness has taken a ding in the last two weeks.

Categories: Uncategorized

  • rf

    “How dare you think you have a right to choose who you live with! Now give us your $2,000,000, park your but in your 1600 sqft, and shut up”!

    -new OV marketing slogan

    Geller is really starting to look like the kid who told the emperor he has no clothes.
    Since when was the kid the bad guy in the story?

    And how does a party that got elected by ringing alarm bells on the OV get off grousing about anyone else saying anything bad about it now?

  • Dan Cooper

    Being an intelligent, kind person does not mean you necessarily do good or that you are not harming people, if your views are noxious. Most people’s views affect the world in some way, and some more than others’ because of their power and influence. In this week’s Dan Savage column, he responds to a fellow who wrote to say that although he is a Christian who opposes gay marriage, he would never personally harm a gay person or explicitly tell his children to harm one, and so should not be tarred with contributing to gay youth’s mistreatment or resulting suicides. M. Savage points out that, if you regularly tell your children that gays are less worthy than yourselves, or in fact evil and despised by God, then your children will naturally treat them badly. Or, if your children themselves are homosexual, they will hate themselves. Likewise, M. Geller may be a wonderful person, in person. However, if he goes around saying and writing that there are people, say “Gammas and Epsilons,” who BASED ON THEIR INCOME LEVEL are universally destined to engage in behaviours that make them intolerable for those with more worthy incomes and therefore morals, say “Alphas and Betas,” to possibly stand living nearby….

  • rf

    Dan, this is about Social Engineering.
    We have a small minority (Vision), elected by the majority of a minority (voters).

    People are speaking with their wallets, not their hearts or minds. It is their right to speak with either.

    The project is not selling. Not one person has chosen to purchase a property in the development over the last 3 months.

    You can call them bigots, discriminators, prejudiced or stupid. Take your pick.

    However, like any other product, you can not force or guilt people into putting down a big chunk of their net worth into funding a social engineering project/product.

    It’s like the OV has become the “derilict” clothing brand in Zoolander. The social engineers are basically suggesting that if you don’t want to dress like a homeless person, it must be because you are a bigot or elitist.

    You can’t charge a premium price for a standard neighborhood. Something has to give.

    To point fingers at those who point out just one, of the many reasons, why it’s not selling really lends itself to this Vision ideal that they know better than us how we should live our own lives, spend our money, and see the city that we live in.
    That will be the downfall of Vision.

  • JAK

    This discussion needs further clarification.

    I think we need to look further at defining types of social housing. Affordable housing for families, hospices for palliative care patients, seniors housing and low barrier housing for mentally ill and drug addicted (not abstinence based) are all considered “social housing”. Yet I would strongly suggest that living beside a hospice and living beside a low barrier building would be entirely different experiences.

    To group them all as one type of housing and say people will not pay to live beside them is far too simplistic.

    As well, the size and mass of social housing is an important factor to livability. Again, it would be quite a different experience living beside 100 units housing mentally ill and drug addicted residents compared with 12 units.

    So, before people pay $2 million to buy a condo adjacent to social housing, wouldn’t they want to know more about who would be living in the social housing units and what supports they would have to enable them to integrate into the community?

  • Roger Kemble

    Olympic Village social mix.

    Let’s get a handle on this. Because US Wall Street bankers have been caught in criminal mortgage fraud world finances are in melt down big time!

    This is just warming up: we have not heard the last by any means.

    Canada’s minimal participation in the fraud has not, evidently, immunized us from the international fall out.

    Accordingly hi-end condominium, normally immune to such fallout, sales are tanking . . .

    http://www.vancouverunrealestate.com/richmond-river-green-development-sold-out.html

    . . . despite River Green’s hype.

    Which means OV sales are facing a world wide down market, bad mouthing to the contrary, that has nothing to do with social mix.

    Indeed the social accommodation, managed by Portland, or whoever, as Vancouver’s history can attest, has nothing to do with the proximity to the smelly lower classes.

    The remedy despite Michael’s august advice . . .

    Honour the social mix, civic promise and obligation, and sell the posh units off at fire sale prices.

    And get out as quickly as possible because it ain’t going to get better than this for a very long time . . .

  • Mark Allerton

    “It’s also why many strata councils don’t allow people to rent out their units”

    Make that “one reason why”. There is another good reason to choose a strata that limits rentals, which is that an owner living in a strata with a large number of absentee owners will find their interests (quality of life) very much not aligned with those of the absentee owners (quality of cashflow) when it comes to maintenance issues.

    FWIW I own a suite in a strata with a 10% rental limit. I’m in favour of allowing renters but I would be opposed to removing any limit – having heard a great deal about the unfortunate experiences of friends in buildings with a large number of absentee owners.

  • Roger Kemble

    @ Mark A 6

    Take a look at the foot-print. OV is essentially several stand alone separate buildings.

    If they are not yet separately titled they should be.

    No one need be a neighbour to wieners and beans smells if the lower classes are cooking in a separate building.

    I really do not know what the fuss it about . . . .

  • Frances Bula

    @rf. Just to add some history to this discussion, both the NPA and Vision supported having social housing at the Olympic village. It has been city policy since the mid-1980s, initiated under Gordon Campbell, to require 20 per cent social housing on all mega project sites. The NPA accepted the bid from Millennium, whose design turned out to have a focus on high-end condos. I did not hear any suggestion from Millennium or the NPA council, as that was being developed, that a focus on high-end condos meant that social housing would no longer be appropriate on this site.

    This is not at all relevant to the question of whether the units should be sold because they cost more than expected to build. That’s a financial question that has merit on both sides of the argument.

  • spartikus

    We have a small minority (Vision), elected by the majority of a minority (voters).

    Which is the basis of our system of government.

    Having who lives where dictated by market forces is every inch a matter of “social engineering” as a government creating zoning requirements. Or regulations. Or laws.

    Taking the social housing element out of the Olympic Village is also a social engineering decision. Don’t pretend it isn’t.

  • ThinkOutsideABox

    “It’s also why many strata councils don’t allow people to rent out their units — precisely because of the concerns from the majority of owners that having renters in the building will affect property values.”

    Not according to my experience. You might want to check what some real estate agents have to say.

    What I saw after a full year of observing 1 bedroom units on the market in Kitsilano, downtown, and the West End are that those without any rental restrictions sold higher than those with full or partial rental restriction.

    I remember one agent telling me full rental restriction on a unit could erode the selling price by around 10%.

  • rf

    I understand your points, Frances. I do agree with both.

    My issue really is with this idea that suddenly the “hard to house” are part of the social housing equation. Geller is so bang on about this.
    I find it incredibly obtuse for other parties to turn it into a ideological debate and suggest that there are no C’s, D’s and E’s in terms of Social housing needs (the Jim Green way) is so unhelpful to solving the problem. It’s just political slaps. There isn’t an ounce of substance to it.

    This suggestion, from Rennie of all people, that “saying out loud” that there will be ‘hard to house’ people in the neighboring buildings, is more damaging then having ‘hard to house’ people is so ridiculous.

    If something stinks, it stinks. You can’t suggest that the person who says it stinks has caused it to stink more.

  • rf

    Sparty,
    I can’t even say that I agree with eliminating all of the social house. There is nothing wrong with having some.

    But we can’t all sit here and suggest that if we take people who push buggies down Hastings and put them in the OV, (where maybe they can now park their buggy next to a Maserati in the parkade), that the high end buyer may think twice about buying (if at all).

    It is not evil or bigoted to suggest that this may true.

  • IanS

    I’m not a real estate agent, but when I sold my condo a number of years ago, the very strict limitations on rentals in the building was a big selling feature.

    The place where I’m living now has fewer restrictions and the only trouble I’ve ever had there was with the rental suite immediately below me. Happily, it’s now in the hands of resident owners and there have been no more problems.

    When we downsize in a few years, I’ll be looking for buildings with few or no rental suites.

  • Mark Allerton

    @Roger – no disagreement from me about the OV, quite the contrary. I think you’re probably correct about the way forward on this – and I suspect it’s only political loss of face that stands in the way.

    I was just pointing out that Frances comment about strata rental limits is an oversimplification in the general case.

  • Frances Bula

    @ rf. The only point of debate here was whether there was ever any plan to put the hard to house in here. To my knowledge, there wasn’t. Always designed for families, seniors, kind of working poor. It was only when the Portland Hotel Society was identified as a bidder for operations that that question was raised, by Michael Geller, who said that was the buzz among those he talked to. I have no reason to doubt there was a knowledgeable group of people for whom the Portland’s bid raised eyebrows. I’ve asked the Portland and they’ve said there was no plan to put in hard to house, that they have worked a lot with seniors housing and also feel capable of renting village units out to lower-income service-type workers. Of course the perception from some was that they would try to get some hard to house people in at some point. But no one on council that I know of has suggested that homeless or recently homeless people be moved to the village’s social housing.

    I agree with you, whether it’s PC or not, the idea that 100-plus people with serious mental health, addiction, physical health, general social issues would be moving en masse into the village would have an impact on potential buyers. Even potential renters. We can see the uproar that having 100-unit towers for this demographic is causing in non-million-dollar neighbourhoods.

  • Frances Bula

    @TOB. And that’s my point about how we need more research on all of this, because at the moment, it’s all anecdotal and depends very much on area, type of buyer, what the realtor’s own motives/biases are. I can see how ALLOWING rental would increase the value for some, because certain buyers would want to feel like they had the freedom to get income from the unit even if they had to leave town for a while or whatever. I can also see how other realtors likely say that NOT ALLOWING rental increases the value because of the type of potential buyers they are dealing with.

  • IanS

    @Frances #16,

    I think a lot of it also depends on the market the realtor is dealing with. A building with no rental restrictions may attract a wider variety of potential purchaser (ie. investors) while a building with limited rentals will attract a narrower range of potential purchasers (ie. just people who want to live there).

  • rf

    @Frances.
    That’s what was so harmful about Jim Green’s smear job. To attack Geller’s comments with such a ‘everyone is equal, therefore you an elitist’ simplistic tone was a sure sign of the depths these guys will go to socially engineer.

    That may not be Portland’s plan, but this Vision administration seems the type to not only allow it to happen, but if they did it, they may even make up T-shirts to rub it in the other resident’s face.

  • Lewis N. Villegas

    What makes all this a storm in a teapot is the politically charged air of it all. And my sentiments run mostly with the person in charge of selling the properties. I am not surprised to see the calculation is to wait for the new season in spring 2011. Let’s keep our fingers crossed, and hope the market is healthy then.

    In the words of a sometime Vancouver hockey player, “It is what it is.”

    If the market analysis says that the product matches a certain description, the best advice is always to follow the market.

    We benefit as citizens, and professionals, from becoming more market savvy, helping us participate with more knowledge the next time around.

    However, there are a couple of issues that came to light in the food fight that stand out for me. One of them was the zoning of 20% of the build out in North False Creek & Bayshore for social housing. A number that has not been met.

    I remember misconstruing the announcements by the city at the time as meaning that “20% of the units built would be social housing”. Not so. Given that this was only “zoning” and not “real” units, why choose such high profile announcements?

    I find it hard to believe that it will take another decade to find land for 250 social housing units. We can accommodate 256 units in 16 fee-simple lots with human-scale houses.

    The fee-simple tag means land assembly is not required, and lots can be found for infill in neighbourhoods throughout the city. In external appearance such units could be every bit like high-end units of the same type in the same location.

    Meanwhile, I have met a family that bought into the OV. Their query? What are they to do with the closets? Apparently the “suburban closet” has been packaged into their unit making them impractical for children, for example. Quotes from closet renovation suppliers are stratospheric. And we worry that the IKEA Pax brand may be a too down market for this quality housing product.

  • The Fourth Horseman

    Bob Rennie has an incredible nerve.

    When times are good, it’s all bluebirds and squirrels with that guy. Does he really think that Micheal Geller is the sole reason behind the current failure of the O/V??

    Forget the social housing component for a minute.

    How about the cost?
    How about the failures and deficiencies of the building? Didn’t Ark Tsisserev get shown the door early at City Hall because he didn’t like the electrical.

    Mr. Rennie, who has made a tidy fortune (and who may well lose one over this project) should just concentrate on providing his unaffordable boxes to the offshore crowd. Who apparently know a raw deal right now, when they see one…

    Kudos to Michael geller, by the way, who is obviously considered a political threat by Jim Green et al. Run, Michael, run—for office!

  • njb

    I think False Creek between Granville and Cambie is a fine example of mixed income levels. Co-ops were put in alongside regular condominiums. Lots of low income and poor people living there with higher income people since the early 80’s. Why does anyone imagine this extension of the residential development along the seawall will be any different, or any less successful?

  • The Fourth Horseman

    Social housing could be added to all new developments. So, really, why wasn’t the plan in place before the Olympics? People at various levels of need could have been moved in by now.
    As I recall, it was Mr. Rennie who was calling the shots as to when the market condos would be released.

    Was he thinking that he wanted to have a good run at sales to those with deep pockets before the social housing was filled? That strategy hasn’t quite worked out…

  • Michael Geller

    I appreciate Frances’ attempt to put my comments in context…

    It is a sad irony that people ask me to refrain from commenting on the Olympic Village Social Housing, and I agree….only to then find Jim Green’s error filled piece last Saturday, and Allen Garr’s error filled piece today quoting Bob Rennie. (Garr claims I said that you can’t have A’s and B’s and C’s and D’s and E’s living together…In fact I said the exact opposite, as noted by Gary Mason and Daphne Bramham’s excellent article, which is missing from Frances’ list.)

    My motivation for speaking out the first time was the fact that the city was planning to spend $64.1 million to subsidize 126 social housing units, and 126 rental housing units. Given that the Late Distribution staff report of April 20, 2010 indicated that the net income from the sale of these units, at $600 a foot was $28.55 Million (this allowed $12, 750,000 for upgrading and ‘conversion costs’ ), and given that there was an expectation that the city could be losing hundreds of millions on its loan and land payment, I thought it seemed reasonable to suggest that this option should not be ignored…noting the $64.1 million could be better spent on other social housing needs around the city.

    (Again, the 20% requirement could not be met in Coal Harbour and the North Shore of False Creek, because the city did not have the funds.)

    I spoke out again since the units had remained empty for 6 months, and the three management proposals from Non-Profits had been rejected.

    Now some people have suggested I was alarmist in suggesting that the Portland Hotel Society, whose work I admire, might be selected by the city to manage the projects, and that some ‘hard-to-house residents might be accommodated. So below are excerpts from just three stories from CBC, Sun/Province and the Globe which led me to believe that PHS might well be selected, and that they intended to accommodate some hard-to-house (even though I am the first to admit this was never the intended population for the social housing.)

    Finally, to Dan Cooper who wrote above: Likewise, M. Geller may be a wonderful person, in person. However, if he goes around saying and writing that there are people, say “Gammas and Epsilons,” who BASED ON THEIR INCOME LEVEL are universally destined to engage in behaviours that make them intolerable for those with more worthy incomes and therefore morals, say “Alphas and Betas,” to possibly stand living nearby…. I have never, ever suggested anything like this.

    I hope this is helpful.

  • The Fourth Horseman

    I find it more than odd that this council, which was going to introduce more transparency into the political life of this city, has its friends telling us what we should be focusing—or not focusing—on. What garbage!

    Goodness, the O/V not selling well? We shouldn’t talk of alternative ways to recoup the taxpayers money–other than trying to sucker people into buying something they clearly do not want at this time.

    Too many unknowns—still!—and thanks to this council, who rang the alarm bells on the financing soley for their own political gain in order to get elected—–I would say that was the REAL beginning of the end about leaving any polish on this project. Vision Vancouver branded this project “a dog” —and we are now living with the consequences of that action.

    Apparently, we shouldn’t talk of any options that will help push those babies out the door, including lowering the price—lest it spoil the party for all the other developers in town.

    The party IS over at the O/V for now , boys. No amount of trying hide things under the damp carpets—including the fact that that the project is about 30% more expensive per sq. ft than any other building in this town, is going to change the savvy buyers mind at this point.

    It’s one thing for taxpayers to lose money on this project (note to ALL pols: you think you REALLY know how to build and run these things?? Really???), it’s another to throw all morality out the window and try to cover your sorry political and realtor butts by blaming those who would dare to question your deal-making! Real men say “The buck stops here.”

    Put me down as thoroughly disgusted.

  • A.E.

    Geller’s comments were clear. Where they got blerred was when Jim Green intentionally messed them up. This was a clear attempt to to shift the heat from Vision for not handling the OV properly in the first place, and place it on Geller and make him the scapegoat for the OV’s continued lack of selling success. Shame on Rennie for trying to blame Geller’s very recent misconstrued comments for the lack of marketability of the OV. If in the past week the OV units have become unmarketable due to Geller’s comments, what is Rennie’s excuse for their lack of appeal before Geller? Vision Vancouver has cost Vancouver taxpayers money, not Geller. As you will remember Raymond Louie was on the last Council who voted to “bail out” the village, and you will notice that he sits quietly everytime Vision Vancouver loudly states that they inherited this mess from the previous Council. Perhaps good ole Gregor and gang could thank their very own Uncle Raymond for helping with that inheritance.

  • Dan Cooper

    @Michael Geller

    Looking back at your quotes in Frances’s article:

    [ http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/should-the-very-poor-share-neighbourhoods-with-the-very-rich/article1744579/ ]

    ——————

    “If you think of the population as divided into five groups on a social and economic basis –As, Bs, Cs, Ds, Es, – when you start putting together the As and the Es, there is the potential for people to not get along,” Michael Geller told The Globe and Mail, adding that the city’s plan to rent out about 110 units to what are called “core need” households would create too difficult a mix in the Olympic village. “If you’re going to mix people, it should be As, Bs and Cs together or Cs, Ds and Es.”

    “A lot of higher-income buyers will be deterred by this,” said Mr. Geller. “You’re almost saying to them that ‘you have to sign an invisible declaration that you’re going to get along with all these people.’ ”

    ——————————–

    So…no As and Bs with any Cs and Ds – not just the hard to house – because of the Cs’ and Ds’, apparently connected, “social and economic” characteristics. Then the rather nasty bit about having to, “get along with all these people.” And, at the risk of flogging a dead horse here, there is the whole matter of the intentional or unintentional Brave New World reference, which carries a lot of freight. I cannot know your conscious intent in saying these things, but to me their most obvious interpretation is very much what I ascribe to them above. What’s more, they seem to have been taken that way by others, e.g in these positively-rated comments on the G&M story:

    “I own my home, but live next door to two rental properties. Both homes are literally falling apart, the people who live there keep the yard in a complete mess, weeds are shoulder high, beer cans strewn everywhere…. cars parked in the back yard… loud drinking parties in the homes and in the yards. Does ANYONE want to live next door to that?”

    “Anyone who thinks mixing the rich and the poor should spend some time on the east side of Vancouver. Any neighborhood that imports those problems will be destroyed. We need to help people, not decimate and ravage other areas of Vancouver.”

    “Lets put it this way: Do you treat your car better if a.) it’s a Rental or b.) it’s Your brand new car? Renter (read low income housing) doesn’t mix with home owners (who consider it an investment).”

    Are you to blame for these condos not selling? My guess is that there are a lot of other factors (price, the economy…) that pull more weight. For that matter, are you responsible for everything anyone who seems to be indicating agreement with you says? Not completely. However, your words do affect individuals’ and society’s thinking, outlooks and decisions, more than most other people’ opinions. If you are using your stature and power to put into the media statements whose most obvious interpretation is, “poorer people cause problems; richer people can’t live with them,” then that is going to have a result which is not good, even with statements that it was not your intent, or backtracking like the below from Oct 6, 2010 at 7:40 am post:

    “A final comment regarding a remark I made on CBC on this matter. I am told that it sounded like I was opposed to people with mental illness living in the community. This is not what I intended to say at all.”

  • Dan Cooper

    Speaking of accuracy, the above line, “So…no As and Bs with any Cs and Ds,” should have read, “…with any Ds and Es.” I will strive to get these things right the first time.

  • Michael Geller

    Here are the news clippings re: Portland Hotel Society which I forgot to append. Thanks also to those of you who have been offering kind comments on this blog, and sending many kind words to me.

    I just finished a CBC ‘on the Coast’ interview with Jim Green. He repeated his claim that there was no assurance the social housing units would sell. He’s right, there’s no assurance. However, the City Staff report considered sales at $600 a foot and $800 a foot. At $600 the net return to the city is $28.5 million…..I think $800 is not realistic, but $600 is…even recognizing the units do not yet have granite countertops and other features some buyers are looking for!

    I also asked Jim Green about the rental units. I asked him if he thought they were being subsidized by the taxpayers. He said not, noting they would be leased at market rents. I can tell you, without any reservations, that this is not correct. The cost of the units, according to the staff report is in the order of $500 a foot. You cannot cover this cost with rents of $2.40 a foot. Some ‘subsidy’, in the form of additional equity is required. Furthermore, I am told that many of the non-profits that did not submit bids worried about renting these units at the rent levels the city was hoping for.

    So here’s my last thought of the week. Even if the city wants to own and subsidize the 126 social housing units, what is the argument for not selling the other 126 units? They will conflict with the sale of the luxury condos? I don’t think so….they are generally $800 a foot or more. Furthermore, these units could be offered as leasehold, rather than freehold. The city could create ‘rent to own’ programs to help get more lower income households into the project. But it could recover its cost, and as the staff report notes, potentially make a small profit.

    And as for Bob Rennie’s claims that I am affecting the sales, I would suggest (as Cheryl Rossi has reported) that it has been the city staff’s unwillingness to allow the developer to introduce new, lower, ‘momentum pricing’ to get the ball rolling that has held up the sales over the past three months. Maybe that will change now. But if it doesn’t, I suspect the City will be the proud owner of all the remaining units come January. And that would be a real pity.

    Ok that’s it. On to other things.

    Here are the clippings:

    From CBC September 29, 2010;
    One of the failed bids came from Mark Townsend, the director of the Portland Hotel Society, which operates the supervised injection site and several social housing projects on the Downtown Eastside.
    Townsend told CBC News his group would be able to run the mixed-market housing at the Olympic Village site, but only if the province provides a subsidy for the 252 units earmarked for rent at varying levels of below-market rates.
    “It’s fine to be given a building, and it’s great the city has done that, but clearly on this, the province isn’t willing to put in that much of a subsidy, so it’s meant to be self-financing, and that is very, very difficult to do,” he said.
    Townsend said that the paucity of bidders suggests many other organizations felt the same apprehensions about the current model for social housing at the Olympic Village, and he expects the 252 units will likely remain empty for the foreseeable future.
    He also said he believes the minister would have had to make a conceptual leap in order to approve a bid from his organization, because the society’s main experience is handling the hard to house, and not mixed-market housing, involving various levels of subsidized rent.

    Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2010/09/29/bc-olympic-village-low-income-housing.html#ixzz12SvVKkxt

    From the Sun/Province….

    Townsend says that a co-op option wasn’t part of the bidding process, and the third bidder was a small non-profit without enough “capacity” to succeed.
    “That leaves only them stuck with only one bidder, us, so that doesn’t work.”

    Read more: http://www.theprovince.com/business/Bids+social+housing+Olympic+village+dead+water/3599771/story.html?cid=megadrop_story#ixzz12SwL6V9w

    From Frances Bula’s Globe and Mail Story:
    Although Mr. Townsend said he would like to see a few of the city’s hard-to-house residents in the project – and he’ll be pushing to achieve that if his non-profit wins the right to operate the buildings – they will largely be rented to people who are lower-income but still able to pay rents of $600 a month and more.

    My comment? Unfortunately, in real estate, perceptions can be more significant than realities…that’s why pre-sale programs often work so well!

  • rf

    AhA! I know exactly what the T-shirts will say!

    “Living with the hard to house makes me Hardwick”

  • cinna mom

    Thank you, Frances, for some objective analysis of the issue. It’s long over due. You cover the marketability controversy and refer to the lack of (scientific?) evidence for the idea that low end housing reduces the value of high end housing. Now how about the next question: what happens when MG’s A’s are mixed with E’s? Does the upper class adopt the behaviours of the lower class (peeing in stairwells, shooting drugs in public)? Or do the lower classes modify their socially unacceptable behaviours to become more like upper class role models? As a former academic, these problems fascinate me!

  • Morven

    Potential buyers of units are entitled to full, frank and plain disclosure, otherwise the agent and the owner(s) (including the city) are liable for damages. And likewise, the investors in the project (ie including taxpayers) are entitled to full, frank and plain disclosure.

    So what part of this does Rennie and the owner(s) not get? And, despite, all efforts at transparency, what are we poor taxpayers not being told about the options open to us (but part of which Michael Geller has set out).

    Perplexing.
    -30-

  • Sean Bickerton

    Michael Geller’s record of creating mixed-income neighbourhoods with both social and supportive housing speaks for itself. On Granville Island alone he’s done far more in this area than those criticizing him, including the factually-challenged and sadly diminished Mr. Green.

    Whether or not you agree with him or not, you have to give MG credit for a well thought-through analysis completely at odds with the caricature that’s been presented by partisans eager to see him discouraged from running in the next election.

    What he offered was a series of questions and options this council could have seized on as a very helpful opportunity to re-evaluate their approach. Unfortunately the Mayor responded to Geller’s analysis as he does to any opinion not his own – by attacking the messenger.

    Which points to the real problem. Leaving aside the fact its never the role of government to produce market-rate anything, something all future councils should remember, there has been a complete lack of leadership on this file.

    To the contrary, the Mayor recklessly used the OV for a well-timed political attack at the close of the last election campaign to throw off last minute embarrassment over his now well-documented career as a scofflaw, and he’s been using it as a political weapon every since.

    Instead the city’s responsibility has been foisted onto Mr. Rennie’s shoulders, requiring him to work the miracles he uniquely specializes in. And if Vision’s partisan attack dogs would just stop savaging Michael Geller’s integrity for daring to mention that the city has options, Mr. Rennie could then regain the public space he needs in which to work his magic.

    Ultimately, we are all relying on Rennie’s extraordinary creativity to save this council from its bone-headed decision to put the city in debt for 3/4 of a billion dollars in violation of the city’s charter. Every one of us should wish him well and do what we can to support his efforts.

    While many voters in the city appear to have given up hope, it’s still not too late for this Mayor and his council to grow up, stop playing petty partisan politics over every issue, and start acting as the responsible government of the third-largest city in the nation.

    That’s what it would take for them to turn things around, but the months remaining in their tumultuous term are beginning to draw to a close and there’s little sign of it.

  • The Fourth Horseman

    Memo to Jim Green (as per Mark Townsend’s own remarks’):

    Your 15 minutes of bs are up on this one, pal…

  • jesse

    If a person with many years of experience says something or states an opinion that “irreparably damages” a sales campaign, chances are you’re trying to move vials of snake oil.

    Word has it other “luxury” developments aren’t exactly flying off the shelves either.

  • jesse

    “Every one of us should wish him well and do what we can to support [Rennie’s] efforts”

    It’s hard to know where to draw the line between sidling a retired couple, or thirtysomething newlywed couple, with a million dollar property that’s likely worth significantly less than that, and recouping taxpayer money.

    When it comes down to it, it’s not much more than selling slightly used cars. And in some markets, like today’s, it’s a dirty business punting stuff like this. We should not be cheering this on; that’s what got this city into this mess in the first place.

  • Chris Keam

    “Word has it other “luxury” developments aren’t exactly flying off the shelves either.”

    – Rents for luxury apartments in Dubai’s Burj Khalifa, the world’s tallest tower, have been slashed by as much as 40 percent after the owners failed to find tenants, according to a broker that’s marketing the homes. –

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-14/dubai-s-burj-khalifa-tower-has-apartment-rents-slashed-to-attract-tenants.html

  • Tiktaalik

    How many multi-millionaires did Millennium and Vancouver really think existed in town? How do developers research the market before making these buildings? Or do they at all?

    If they expected to sell these things to rich jetsetters why was the city complicit in that? It doesn’t seem like a policy that helps Vancouver. If it it does maybe someone can explain to me how.

  • Tiktaalik

    for clarity “jetsetters” meaning people who don’t already live in Vancouver and are buying an additional residence.

    Though I have heard that this common myth is indeed a myth…
    http://www.beyondrobson.com/city/2009/06/empty_condo_phenomenon_a_myth/

  • Lewis N. Villegas

    “… what is the argument for not selling the other 126 units? … these units could be offered as leasehold, rather than freehold. The city could create ‘rent to own’ programs to help get more lower income households into the project. But it could recover its cost, and as the staff report notes, potentially make a small profit.”

    Michael Geller 28

    Michael, I wonder if post #39 is not too late to make progress. Some years ago I teamed up with a top real estate lawyer and a local non-profit to see if we could break the nut on making home owners out of renters.

    Our market periodically returns to points where the cost of the mortgage is more or less at par with the cost of renting the same unit. If you are renting, and can scramble up a down-payment, shifting to home ownership creates an asset that will continue to appreciate into the future.

    We couldn’t do it, chiefly because the non-profit was not in a position to hold the properties.

    However, a rent-to-own program as you describe it would be a great legacy from the Olympics.

  • Bill McCreery

    @ FB 11.
    “It has been City policy since the mid-1980s, initiated under Gordon Campbell, to require 20 per cent social housing on all mega project sites.”

    I don’t think you’re right there Francis. TEAM in 1974 established the 1/3 market, 1/3 affordable, 1/3 social housing in False Creek South. &, we planned & executed a much larger, more complex project there than the Olympic Village in a manner where pretty well everyone involved profited, including the City of Vancouver. &, the development, has been a feather in Vancouver’s cap to this day. On North False Creek, @ that time owned by Marathon Realty [CPR], we required they were to provide 20% social housing in their development. Unfortunately they didn’t develop anything on the north side before Expo 86 when the Province bought the entire property for the Fair. The only project that was built was the False Creek Marina, Ondine’s Restaurant, etc., which I was the architect for.

    Gordon Campbell was Art Phillips’ executive assistant while he was Mayor & when he moved over to the NPA in the 80’s he simply continued the TEAM policies. Incidentally in 1974 we also identified the 20% policy should apply to all future large developments such as Coal Harbour, etc. I know, I was party to those discussions & decisions.

  • Roger Kemble

    Word has it other “luxury” developments aren’t exactly flying off the shelves either.” Jessie 34

    Yes, Jessie, that is the point but don’t expect anyone to admit that: it is a threat to their rarified empires.

    OV is the victim of over blown womped-up Olympic panic we cannot live up to: OV, is suffering the back-lash.

    It is also suffering a worldwide financial melt down that is not local. We had better, sin embargo, clue in soon.

    A good example of hysteria is the bike lane squabble.

    So, the city proposes a bike lane on Drake that apparently transgresses a loading bay and, oh boy, up ramps the decibels.

    Of course no one mentioned that Anchor Point’s loading bay on Drake has been there for decades coping with traffic far heavier bikes.

    Much of the sage advice flying around OV is coming from academe and superannuated government employees whose experience is limited to the salad days of build it and thy will come views, views, views: that is until the minutely plotted view corridors are built out by the next development rampage.

    Much of that trade, also, has come from off shore.

    We should not be cheering this on; that’s what got this city into this mess in the first place.” Jessie 45

    OV is a magnificent example of urbanism yet apparently we cannot deal with magnificence. I wish I had the where-with-all to buy in!

    Its only problem is its timing in a world wide financial debacle.

    Of course the sages spend much space declaring their altruistic motives. “We are not politically motivated” they innocently swear. I have watched them all for a very long time: I am a skeptic!

    And God help the town if they get their hands on the levers of power: it will be back to the future forever.

    That is why I believe Vancouver is a failed city . . .

    http://members.shaw.ca/urbanismo/thu.future/vancouver.failed.html

    It’s not the town. It’s us people. We cannot cope with reality without going postal. The hysteria has degenerated to the absurd.

  • jesse

    “Its only problem is its timing in a world wide financial debacle. “

    I detect a note of sarcasm? Based on rental equivalency these places are 30-40% overvalued. The City needs to get it in their skulls that building costs and market values are often two completely different entities.

  • Shane

    Why isn’t Rennie himself taking some responsibility for the struggles the development is having?

    The pricing is extraordinary, and although I didn’t have the chance to go check out the suites along with the thousands of others, from the friends I talked to, the suites were staged in a style that was quite alienating and intimidating.

  • Morven

    @ Roger Kemble # 41

    I disagree with your assertion that Vancouver is a failed city. It is not there yet.

    A failed city is one that fails to address challenges and does not address reality. And if Vancouver maintains it is a global city then it should be prepared for global challenges. And we have a real global challenge on our hands.

    Time will tell if Vancouver faces up to this challenge but when Vancouver, the province and the developer (plus all their advisers) envisaged the Olympic Village, they evidently did not believe there was much risk of a global liquidity crisis that would roil the financial markets, lead to a 30-40% drop in value in global commercial real estate markets, drive construction inflation and currency changes and severely constrict global flows of investment capital.

    The challenge Vancouver faces is dealing with the financial debris of the recent past while maintaining that real estate investment in Vancouver is sound in the near future. The Rennie/Geller spat might be symptomatic of the contrasting views of the near future of investment real estate.

    And it calls for extraordinary municipal political skills that are not yet evident
    -30-

  • Roger Kemble

    @Morven 44

    A failed city is one that fails to address challenges and does not address reality.

    How well I remember the heady days of Art Phillip’s TEAM declaring Vancouver to be an executive city. That was the early ’70’s.

    Unfortunately we were so mesmerised by the thought of being a Global City we failed, as you say, to be prepared for global challenges.

    Instead of encouraging other forms of import substituting wealth creating manufacturing we relied on off-shore money to inflate real estate to the point we could not afford to live in our own town.

    Phillip Owen tried by declaring the False Creek flats to be a hi-tech zone: unfortunately Silicon Valley beat him to it.

    Vancouver became a city of tenants.

    And that is where we are today.

    As for OV of course the simplistic solution is to first jettison the most vulnerable. Yet, for a city to renege on a promise to its less fortunate is to besmirch its global reputation further, eroding investor confidence in the process.

    The extraordinary municipal political skills you call for Morven are IMO the courage to bite the bullet and sell and/or rent the units to get them off the city’s books (remembering, BTW, OV is still owned by Millennium)

    @ Jessie 42 . . . no I am not being sarcastic. There was a time, of collective delusion, premium rents and mortgage payments were not the issue because the bubble, we thought, would never burst.

    Remember the Beasley it even provided a special doggie run floor for its opulent residents.

  • Janice

    @ rf on each one of your posts:

    Ok, sadly all the bitter & erroneous nastiness from the City, Garr, Green, Rennie et al may scare off Mr. Geller from running in the next election, @ a time we so desperately need sane people with courage to speak and act.

    So I’ll ask – could YOU pleaaaase run for Mayor?! btw your comment “If something stinks, it stinks. You can’t suggest that the person who says it stinks has caused it to stink more.” is priceless. Well done.

    Seems savvy investors know better than to trust Vision and their buddies like PHS (and Frances herself rather assuring us OV won’t be for hardest-to-house). Yeah, I can trust you all, right?

    Why else have they held off on filling those units then, hmm? So potential investors won’t SEE for themselves what Vision’s social engineering is all about, that’s why.

  • Roger Kemble

    @ Morven . . .

    Here is some stuff that broadens the conversation beyond rancor, blame and gossip . . .

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=21494

    This results in a chronic scarcity of money that affects all the players in the system, as the money to pay back the interest on all the loans does not exist. As a result, we all must compete in a zero-sum game to earn something that simply does not exist.

    . . . a very enlightening point view alerting us to the huge mountain (massive volte-face in our perception) we must climb to get out from under this OV black hole.

    . . . it calls for extraordinary municipal political skills that are not yet evident . . . ” and indeed skills that may never be evident locally.

  • Vanessa Carter

    Have I missed something here? Why is everyone screaming about the social housing aspect of the development now? All the nay sayers and those who have issues with this you should have bitched and complained years ago when we announced the winner. My tax paying dollars went to this and I cannot even qualify for the social housing because I supposedly make to much yet I am spending 70% of my net income on rent right now. So, those who are trying to cash in on it by flipping it – suck it up buttercup – All the taxpayers in this over priced province own a piece of it…