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Green NDP candidates win in Vancouver, surge in West Van. What does it mean?

May 15th, 2013 · 147 Comments

I note that the places where the NDP did make a few gains were in particular spots where the NDP candidates managed to combine the usual party line with a green message: West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, where NDP candidate Ana Santos didn’t win, but achieved the biggest gain for any riding in NDP votes. Vancouver-Fairview, where former Suzuki Foundation director George Heyman managed a win over Margaret McDiarmid; David Eby in Point Grey, where tankers and pipelines were a major talking point.

But is that only a winning combination in certain urban ridings and an NDP vote-killer elsewhere? Or a new direction the party should contemplate?

Just a question to toss out among many. Go to town on election post-mortens here: the complete off-sidedness of the pollsters; the campaign message that worked; abysmal voter turnout; all of the above.

 

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  • MB

    @ rf 41

    It’s not necessarily the losing side that quotes the percentile of eligible votes in their dismay that the keys to the province can be handed over to a handful of individuals in cabinet for four years by so few people.

    Here’s a satirical piece on this issue by a self-purported suburban conservative (apologies if it leads to a paywall):

    http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Those+didnt+vote+should+ashamed/8393079/story.html

    It’s increasingly less difficult to admit that our society is getting dumber.

  • gman

    Poor Waltyss,having another tantrum are you,take deep breath go upstairs and see what mommy is making for dinner,maybe icecream would help.
    MB,nope not speaking for anyone,just reading the comments.But you guys are so super smart it should be a cake walk for you to bamboozle a bunch of uneducated old white rednecks ,or not.

  • MB

    I’m very happy to see your spelling, prose and insight improve over the past year, gman.

  • rf

    MB

    My point is that I get the sense that the left feels the result would be different if voter turnout was higher.

    I find that a bit of an insult to those that actually voted.

    The left continues, even post election, to quote polls about the majority of BC being opposed to pipelines and tankers. In lieu of the election, those polls are hardly worth the paper they are printed on. We simply don’t know what they actual support or opposition is.

    A referendum may be the answer.

  • IanS

    Here is Geoff Meggs’ analysis:

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/bcvotes2013/blogs/warroom/2013/05/5-lessons-from-the-bc-election-campaign.html

  • Agustin

    @Frances, would it be possible to set up the comments section so that people can reply to specific comments, and we can view a series of “conversations”? That may make it easier for readers to separate the signal from the noise in the discussions.

    Thank you

  • babalu1

    Interesting election. Debate will continue to see if ‘Greens’ guilty of Naderization.
    Will be intersting to see how much direct and indirect moolah the Koch’s et al sent north of the border. (This is not a bitch, the NDP knows they’re out there. “Anticiapation is half the battle” – I’m not sure if it was George Patton or Don Cherry who said that)
    Glissy is your real name Ray Skelly? (lol, lol)
    Love your bon mots: “Qui s’aime se taquine!”
    “Pretentious? Qui moi?” (LOL)
    Some you are not as ‘trolly’ as I thought. Seriously. (Yes, even you Glissy)
    For I too am old enough to remember when sex was dirty and the air was clean.

  • babalu1

    Oooops, left out a rhetorical question for y’all.

    Do you think Basi and Virk got shit-faced last Tuesday?

  • Bill

    @MB #51

    “It’s increasingly less difficult to admit that our society is getting dumber.”

    Do you think that the fact the Progressives have controlled the education system for the past 20 years has anything to do with it?

  • brilliant

    @rf 54:bingo. When Dix nixed Kinder Morgan he began his descent. Most BCers know our wealth comes from resources,accept for a few clueless urbanites.

  • boohoo

    Bill, how do you define a ‘Progressive’?

  • Mira

    BC Election according to … the voice of reason, he, he…
    Gliss, I think your take at #12 is quite telling. Love your thought of the day at #37 and paraphrasing babalu1 #57 … “Qui s’aime se taquine!” and considering it was a “W – message” … it was simply brilliant! 🙂
    I think Ned #27 nailed it:
    “The only winners after this election are the Liberals. The “environmentalists” got it wrong this time and they lost Adrian Dix his election and Premiership. If it wasn’t for the ones mentioned in Glissy’s post, he would not have taken such a populist stand AGAINST the pipeline, mining, tankers, which is in fact, what killed his chances on election day.”
    and confirmed by rf #54 and brilliant #60.
    I add my name to that.

  • IanS

    It’s strange that the the description “progressive” is used as a epithet.

  • MB

    @ rf 54: My point is that I get the sense that the left feels the result would be different if voter turnout was higher.

    Totally agree. But it’s everybody, not just the left, who are quoting the polls like they are the Holy Grail.

    The NDP loss was firstly a late shift in voter intentions due to the NDP’s failure to read the public concern about the economy and jobs. They really have to address this over the next four years and present viable policy alternatives that balances jobs and environment.

    The Green split was secondary to this, but in my view overall Green support should not be underestimated in future. There wasn’t a huge gap in the popular vote between the two big parties. A couple or three points closer — and accounting for the mathematical disparity in seat counts compared to the actual vote — and you’d have Andrew Weaver acting as Queen / King maker in a minority government.

    Having a scientist’s mind influencing the final formation of a government would surely shake up the status quo on both sides.

    I also agree on a province-wide referendum on the Enbridge project, which is a major new pipeline and tanker project slated for largely pristine environments. Kinder Morgan is an expansion on an existing route and industrial infrastructure, and probably isn’t worth the effort and expense of a referendum, though there are serious environmental concerns.

    In either case, the environmental costs and economic externalities (e.g. exported embodied emissions) should be fully estimated and published for public digestion along with independent and realisitic analyses of the benefits. Hype, exaggeration and partisan ideology needs to be tempered on such an important decision.

    A provincial and / or federal government willing to underwrite the costs of R&D into alternatives could, for example, promote the development of geothermal power at our numerous volcanic sites which could potentially supply enough of a surplus of base load energy to foster a new clean energy industrial order in BC as well as for export to Alberta and beyond in perpetuity.

    How ironic that would be.

    The Liberals are focused on petroleum (mostly LNG) to “save” the BC economy from their own deficits without fully understanding the long term consequences of their policies today. The NDP could focus on renewables, transit and the like, and policies that consider petroleum only as a transitional fuel. You don’t ban Kinder Morgan without offering something in return.

  • babalu1

    The foregoing article may seem a bit off topic, but it says a lot. Sorry, a bit long but worth a read.

    http://www.nationofchange.org/collapse-journalism-and-journalism-collapse-royal-prophetic-apocalyptic-1368799018

  • MB

    Bill 59:

    Do you think that the fact the Progressives have controlled the education system for the past 20 years has anything to do with it?

    Thanks for reminding us of Christy Clark’s stint as Minister of Education. Very progressive indeed!

  • Julia

    I was expecting/anticipating/hoping Dix to win and for Geoff Meggs to go to Victoria where we would not have to listen to him any more. Fortunately/unfortunately… the Liberals won (don’t blow it by becoming more arrogant than you already are) but we are also stuck with Meggs running around city hall like he owns the place.

    darn.

  • IanS

    @MB #64:

    You write “I also agree on a province-wide referendum on the Enbridge project…”.

    I agree in principle.

    However, the problem with such a referendum is that only one side will really be bound by the result. If the pipeline etc is rejected, it won’t go ahead. However, if it is approved (for lack of a better word), do you really think the environmental groups or native interests will drop their opposition? I doubt it.

  • babalu1

    Ms. Julia,

    Would you rather have this buffoon?

    http://nextcity.org/daily/entry/five-reasons-why-toronto-mayor-rob-ford-might-have-smoked-crack-cocaine

  • IanS

    Interestingly, if one looks at the history of election results in BC (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_British_Columbia_general_elections) one could argue that the recent election result represents pretty much the equilibrium for BC.

    With the exception of some “notable” Premiers giving rise to massive swings (Vander Zalm, leading to the big NDP majority in 1991 and Clark leading to the big Liberal majority in 2001), the results seem somewhat uniform, give or take.

    Given that history, it looks like the result of the recent election, while surprising at the time, is pretty consistent with the pattern in this province.

  • Kenji

    63

    Heh, yes. And it is all coded anyway.

    Those who believe in the unfettered market believe that their way best ensures progress, in a quasi-Darwinian way.

    And those who are pleased to call themselves conservative are not necessarily at all interested in conserving the world’s finite resources, or principles of the constitution.

    ‘Left’ and ‘right’ are almost equally useless!

  • Agustin

    @IanS, 68: I’m not sure about that. Do you think that if the referendum answered “no”, Enbridge and the federal Conservatives would drop their advocacy? Or would they try to find some other way to make it happen?

    The referendum would, presumably, form the BC government’s position – nothing more, nothing less. BC is only one stakeholder, but there are more forces at play than them and the environmental opposition.

  • Agustin

    (Oops, I should have included the government of Alberta in that list as well.)

  • IanS

    @Augustin #72,

    I would imagine that, if the referendum came out with a “no” result, the BC gov’t would have no choice but to oppose the pipeline, at least from a political standpoint.

    However, if you are correct and no one is bound by the result, it is difficult to imagine any reason to undertake the exercise.

  • Chris Keam

    “It’s strange that the the description “progressive” is used as a epithet.”

    Not if you’re afraid of progress.

  • Bill

    “It’s strange that the the description “progressive” is used as a epithet.”

    You forgot the capital “P”.

  • IanS

    I did. Let me correct that.

    It’s strange that the description “Progressive” is used as an epithet.

  • F.H.Leghorn

    I always thought Progressives were talking about their insurance underwriter. You know:”Save the planet and 15% on car insurance”.

  • brilliant

    @MB 64-LNG is not petroleum.

  • Chris Keam

    “LNG is not petroleum.”

    Debatable.

    pe·tro·le·um (p-trl-m)
    n.
    A thick, flammable, yellow-to-black mixture of gaseous, liquid, and solid hydrocarbons that occurs naturally beneath the earth’s surface, can be separated into fractions including natural gas, gasoline, naphtha, kerosene, fuel and lubricating oils, paraffin wax, and asphalt and is used as raw material for a wide variety of derivative products.

    http://www.thefreedictionary.com/petroleum

  • G. deAuxerre

    IanS 70: You are utterly correct. With a few exceptions, BC has always had a two-party system with the centre-right clearly dominant. The subservient centre-left gets in only during lapses of the dominant.

    The SoCreds were created in 1952 and governed for two decades. And, for 40 years CCF, then NDP scored consistently low.

    In 1972, the NDP got in for 36 months during a changeover from Bennett father to son.

    In 1991, the NDP got in again, when Vander Zalm’s Social Credit morphed into the new Liberals under Gordon Wilson. Just as in the 1970s, the NDP were expected to be thrown out after one term, but they managed to barely hold on in 1996, because of vote-splitting on the right.

    In that election, the Liberals under Gordon Campbell actually had a higher percentage of vote (42%) than the NDP, but the Reform party and the Progressive Democratic Alliance took 15%.

    Two terms and 10 years of NDP was way too much for BC and they were almost extincted in 2001, and BC almost became a one-party province like Alberta.

    So, prior to the 1970s, the split in provincial political sentiment (by seat%) was right 60, left 30. After that and up to today – with a few anomalies – it’s settled into 60/40. Dix got the same result as James’ two efforts, and who both got the same average as Harcourt and Clark. So Ian, you’re right, this week, the NDP just batted on average and didn’t really lose anything.

    Over the decades, the centre-right has paid a brief price in transforming and modernizing itself, but quickly returns to dominate.

    The only way for the NDP to ever have a chance to govern is to re-invent, and they had the perfect chance to do that after they were decimated in 2001.

    But, they just keep returning to their natural position as a secondary, protest-vote, opposition party, providing high paying (and pensioning) jobs for the few elected, and change leaders like diapers.

    For a group claiming to be modern and progressive, it is astonishing how backwards the NDP remain compared to other political parties throughout the western world. Like the groundswell to recycle and reuse Carole James to repeat her losses of 2005 & 2009.

  • G. deAuxerre

    ERRATA

    Dix got the same result as James’ two efforts, and who both got the same average as Barrett’s 3 consecutive losses in the late 70s, and Skelly.

  • Boohoo

    Bill, are you going to explain what ‘Progressive’ means? You keep making these vague insinuations without explaining what you mean.

  • Bill

    @boohoo #82

    Probably the most succinct definition I have come across adapted for Canada:

    “A word left-wingers now use to describe themselves, because the word socialist has gained a negative connotation.

    Once the term progressive has been dragged through the mud by right-wing pundits, a new term will again be chosen.

    “Whoa man, who are you calling a ‘Socialist’? I support alternative fuels and the work of Bono and Al Gore. I’m a Progressive.”

    Probably answers your question too, IanS.

  • IanS

    @Bill #83,

    Really? You’re not a Bono fan? I love U2.

    Guess I’m a Progressive. 🙂

  • Chris Keam

    In case anyone wants an antonym to Progressive, I nominate the term ‘Midger’

    http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2013/05/its-thomas-midgeley-day.html

  • Everyman

    @G. deAuxerre 81
    I wonder if Carole James is secretly feeling a little smug right now? Not only does it turn out she was as strong a vote getter as the NDP will likely see, but she also beat back a strong Green challenger in her own riding.

  • gman

    What is a Progressive?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUzMPlQb2G4&feature=player_embedded

  • Higgins

    Everyman #86
    She should. As she was ousted by the likes of NDP dinosaur Jenny Kwan (btw , where’s the change?).
    With 25 new MLA’s the BC Liberals did change their rooster (not sure about their ideology/ actions).
    But yes, Carol James proved she still is s strong candidate, especially those green fluffers.
    I liked Glissando’s accolade in &12 very much:
    “Aesop was right, The NDP Hare turned out to be an arrogant fool after all. He had everything working out for him, his only enemy was none other but himself. And the “trailing behind in all polls” The Liberal Tortoise, won. Simple.”
    Pure Gliss… 🙂

    The most hilarious post on this thread though, must be that of Kenji &45 who takes first prize, no contest.
    “He is (… Mayor Moonbeam) the obvious choice” LOL … for comedy, yes!

  • Bill

    @IanS #84

    Is it their music you like or is it how they have skillfully arranged their affairs to reduce the amount of income tax they pay? While it is a tad hypocritical it doesn’t come close to Al Gore selling out his cable network to Qatar while preaching to the world about the evils of oil.

  • IanS

    @Bill #89,

    I do like their music. I have no knowledge as to how Bono, and the other members of the band, structure their income tax affairs, but I assume they do so rationally (ie. to minimize the amount of tax paid). Nothing wrong with that.

    From your post, it seems to me that your problem is not with those who profess to advance a “progressive” agenda, but, rather, with those who you perceive to be hypocritical about it.

    Fair enough. However, in my experience, no one political stance or point of view has cornered the market on hypocrisy.

  • Richard

    @bill

    How about dropping the right wing talking points. Al Jazeera often has excellent coverage of climate change issues. Often better that the American media. The fact that it is owned by oil rich Qatar hasn’t seemed to affect its coverage of the issue.

    For example: http://m.aljazeera.com/story/201351865032465413

    “The disinformation campaign can only survive for so long. We saw, as in the case of tobacco, there was a similar disinformation campaign decades ago to obscure the science and the scientific link between the use of tobacco products and lung cancer. But eventually the truth of what the science had to say became accepted. There are some positive signs that we are moving in that direction; the rest of the world is moving increasingly towards renewable energy …. We are lagging behind but we are slowly making progress ourselves.”

    – Michael Mann, director of Penn State University’s Earth System Science Center

  • boohoo

    Bill, that’s quite the non-answer. So you think we’re all socialists? What do you think socialist means?

    Get to the nub of it here man, stop beating around the bush.

  • gman

    Richard@91
    Mann has turned into a laughing stock,his work has been completely discredited and that’s why he continues to rattle on about tobacco and the debunked consensus. And if you think Qatar has no interest in the west leaving their oil and natural gas in the ground you really are delusional,their entire existence depends on it.
    His latest appearance is nothing but a propaganda fest and only shows that him and his ilk are still trying to manufacture yet another fake “consensus” and they failed miserably,these guys are a joke.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/18/mike-manns-tobacco-claims-on-al-jazeera/#more-86511
    Richard you really have to look a little closer at how they arrive at the garbage they put out rather than blindly believing every scary headline they put out.

  • gman

    Richard@
    Have a look at the fuzzy math and how they arrived at a very misleading survey.
    http://www.staatvanhetklimaat.nl/2013/05/17/cooks-survey-not-only-meaningless-but-also-misleading/

  • Richard

    @gman

    Might want to take your own advice and look into the websites that you refer to. It only takes a minute or so to figure out watts up with that.

  • gman

    Richard that’s your problem,you only spend a minute or two so you could not have possibly looked at any of the data or papers or anything that Watts is bringing to peoples attention. If you’ve found a problem with something that is referenced then tell us about it,but you cant do that until you look at it. You seem to be more concerned about the man rather than the information so you really cant have a clue what the problems are.And there are a lot of problems.

  • gman

    Richard even CNBC is starting to get the picture.This would have been unheard of even a few months ago.What we are seeing is the slow unwinding of what was a huge mistake,again.
    http://motls.blogspot.ca/2013/05/william-happer-on-cnbc.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+LuboMotlsReferenceFrame+%28Lubos+Motl%27s+reference+frame%29

  • Tessa

    What I noticed was that if the province were split in two at the Coast Mountain Range, we would be left with two very different places: one environmentally friendly, left-wing province and one all-out for resource extraction, conservative, environmentally degrading province. It’s unfortunate that, if we’re to believe the pundits that the reason of the NDP collapse was indeed around pipelines, the area of B.C. most negatively affected by climate change in the form of the mountain pine beetle voted to exacerbate the problem.

  • brilliant

    @Tessa 98-in other words, one half who works and one half who lives parasiticaly off of them