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Canadian pollsters facing more scrutiny

December 30th, 2011 · 20 Comments

A relevant article from the Toronto Star that will be of interest here, given the number of strange and, as it turns out, completely erroneous polls that were published in the two months leading up to the election, e.g. the NPA poll that said Suzanne Anton was running neck and neck with Gregor Robertson, a Forum Research poll that said the same, and another Forum Research poll that indicated Robertson’s popularity was low.

As local politics junkies will know, only Barb Justason’s polls and, as it turned out later, Strategic Communications’ polls from Vision’s in-house pollster Bob Penner, were accurate.

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  • Silly Season

    On @Roger Kembles New Year’s Resolutions List:

    1) Try to actually add to a conversation without looking for a reason to just take a cheap shot at someone, unrelated to the thread.

    2) Take Metamucil 3x a day, to clean out nasty ducts.

    Bah. Humbug! Indeed…

  • Sean Bickerton

    Being fed false polling information – polling that turned out not just a little optimistic but dead wrong – is one of the most infuriating aspects of that campaign.

    It wasn’t only the media that was misled, it was the candidates as well.

    I didn’t mind being managed – all candidates are – but feeding us misinformation, whether purposeful or not, is unforgivable, and there’s no excuse for it given the millions spent.

  • Bill McCreery

    @ Roger.

    Your comment was inappropriate and unnecessary. You owe Michael an apology. [I have removed Roger’s comment, for those wondering what this is in reference to, as I ramp up to a more civil year in 2012. FB]

    I have thoroughly enjoyed Michael’s creative Christmas endevours in years past, and was thinking when I reviewed his Christmas card blog posting the other day that he needs to put them and several of his other efforts, often inciteful and irreverent in their own ways, together in some sort of publication or CD.

    Those who saw his also inciteful and entertaining review of his work last fall at SFU might also agree that some of Michael’s takes on his own projects as well as some of the sidebars (the garage door for Mrs. Wosk at the Langara Gardens project) are not only entertaining, but also are part of the larger story, both on the human side as well as the technical and financial aspects.

    OMO they’re even better when taken together.

  • Roger Kemble

    [I have removed Roger’s comment, for those wondering what this is in reference to, as I ramp up to a more civil year in 2012. FB] ” Ummmmm I don’t get this techno wizardry. Both posts still appear on my screen.

    Sooner or later the truth will out!

    I apologize to Bill for . . . you know what: Bill is a good guy. He has a right to his opinion.

    But hey so do I!

    And IMO the Geller Christmas card isn’t so much a seasonal greeting as it is a very expensive, (23 slides for heaven’s sake), politically motivated, PR piece, demonstrating his gratuitously, uncalled for, sneering at NIMBY’s (slide 23), that made the newspaper (slides 1-8): hardly a good will gesture!

    (Slide 11). Ummmmmmm! (Slide 20). I’ll drink to that!

    And if this ends up in the dumpster it’s” . . . good bye yellow brick road, 2012. RK.

  • Roger Kemble

    Correction: . . .

    demonstrating his gratuitously, uncalled for, sneering at NIMBY’s (slides 1- 6)

  • Roger Kemble

    As I said, the truth will out . . .

    Up date to Geller’s slide no 11. Rabin and Arafat: Oslo Accord 1993: the good guys, both assassinated!

    Obliquely related to the State of Vancouver conversation: Geller introduced it!

    Events have changed . . .
    http://www.intifada-palestine.com/2011/12/an-historic-partnership-with-the-devil-an-analysis-by-dr-lawrence-davidson-%E3%80%80/
    . . . since then so let’s be careful about outdated photos.

    If Frances deep sixes this, to say the least, I will not be impressed!

  • Michael Geller

    “And IMO the Geller Christmas card isn’t so much a seasonal greeting as it is a very expensive, (23 slides for heaven’s sake), politically motivated, PR piece, demonstrating his gratuitously, uncalled for, sneering at NIMBY’s (slide 23), that made the newspaper (slides 1-8): hardly a good will gesture!

    Roger. Sorry I missed your initial post but I’m confused by your remarks above and surprised that my annual irreverant Christmas/Holiday Greeting cards should upset you.

    Were my Holiday Greeting Cards PR pieces? Of course they were, just as this year’s card is hopefully a way of promoting some affordable housing ideas while keeping in touch with new and old friends.

    To be clear, the cards illustrated (with the exception of the final images) were from different years and were hardly ‘expensive’. Indeed, they were often much cheaper to produce than going out and buying ready made cards! (Yes, I did the illustrations myself.)

    You seem to be upset that I mocked the Oakridge Langara NIMBY’s. I mocked the people who opposed the Langara Gardens project since it would have added 385 rental units at absolutely no cost to the city, at a time when there was a rental shortage in the city. Sound familiar. The overall FSR was to increase to 1.15. The project had the support of planning department staff and the Urban Design Panel.

    If you think the opponents were right, I’ll look forward to your commentary when the area around Cambie and 57th is ultimately planned and redeveloped at 3 times this density in years to come.

    Again, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you all, and I look forward to meeting some of you this Friday at 4:30 at Bitter, as previously planned.

  • Roger Kemble

    Your gratuitous insertion of slide 11 is an inappropriate seasonal greeting for reasons mentioned and has nothing to with Vancouver’s healthy development: as well as being off topic and misleadingly out dated under a title State of Vancouver.

    (Bill I do not owe Geller an apology: indeed, I thought better of you. Pusillanimous comes to mind)

    If I am the only one with gonads enough to challenge you, so be it.

    For my further reasons click on my name above . . .

    . . . some people have more spine than you Mr. Geller and more integrity.

    Please do not introduce this very contentious subject up again.

    http://members.shaw.ca/urbanismo/greatest.painting.century.twenty.one/obama.html

    This is my response!

  • The Fourth Horseman

    @Roger Kemble

    I think your posts against Michael Geller say rather more about you, than him.

    Strange, you have a painting of Obama and the Founding Fathers, with I beleive, a reference to Obama trampling on civil rights (given the news of the last few days).

    Yet, you want to censure Michael for his inclusion, during the holiday/Christmas/Hanukkah season, of three men who were working in support of a peace process? You find this outrageous?

    Can you see the irony, Rog?

  • CityHallWatch

    A few points: (1) The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association (MRIA, at http://www.mria-arim.ca) Code of Conduct and Good Practice, including its Disciplinary Procedures (pps. 36-40) can be found here. Major polling firms are members. (2) The Vancouver public would be well-served by broadening this discussion about polling to cover the period not only during the election but also the behaviour of all pollsters in the months before and after an election. (3) We also need a healthy public discussion of the role of media, and we need to review actual cases of reporters using polling results in the articles written. Can pollsters’ word choice, response options, and information stated (and excluded) in telephone surveys influence public opinion? And what is the potential influence of pollsters, when quoted by reporters in the media, on voter behavior and public opinion? (4) For example, a interesting study in pollster behaviour is this one, more than a year before the 2011 election. Many West End residents received a call from Strategic Communications (Stratcom), a research firm that often works for Vision Vancouver, this time hired by Westbank Development Corp. to solicit opinions on the proposed development at 1401 Comox Street (St. John’s Church) as well as voter and sexual orientation. There were reportedly many problems with this survey in terms of professionalism, fact and ethics. Many of the questions appeared biased or forced respondents to accept options that were vague or could lead to misleading conclusions. See or

  • CityHallWatch

    See or

  • CityHallWatch

    Seems to be a glitch on this blog. See Westendneighbours.ca and search for “strategic-communications-survey” or “update-on-telephone-survey”

  • Roger Kemble

    The Fourth Horseman @ #11

    Yet, you want to censure Michael for his inclusion, during the holiday/Christmas/Hanukkah season, of three men who were working in support of a peace process? You find this outrageous?

    In view of subsequent events . . .

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kPe5zcTjH4&feature=player_embedded

    . . . nearly twenty-years later, I sure as hell do!

    . . . your post . . . say rather more about you, than him. You godda be kiddin’ TFH. I’m outraged! Geller’s complacent, insensitive, or willfully ignorant.

    Real people don’t bandy this stuff around to promote business . . . or are you just naïve?

  • Silly Season

    @Roger Kemble

    ..’narcissim of small differences makes for good conflict”, commentator/letter writer Marc Gopin to this:

    http://epiphenom.fieldofscience.com/2009/01/shared-genetic-heritage-of-jews-and.html

    Pity.

  • Silly Season

    In case you don’t get the point I’m driving at, think Northern and the Republic of Ireland.

    It’s terrible when brothers fight…

  • Roger Kemble

    SS @ # 15

    Palestinian = semetic.

    Ashkenazi = Caucasian Kazaha.

    http://www.christusrex.org/www2/koestler/
    . . . a long read but interesting.

    Ireland: totally different.

    A history lesson: the Dutch usurper won the Battle of The Boyne: Catholic vs Protestant.

    William of Orange (protestant), William lll of England, was invited by England’s Parliament at the behest of James’ daughter Mary.

    No civilians were phospherous bombed!

    Condescension is hazardous SS, talking to an English Public School boy.

    . . . my Holiday Greeting Cards PR pieces? Of course they were . . . Geller @ #7

    How the hell did the State of Vancouver get into this?

    Ask Geller!

  • Silly Season

    @Roger Kemble

    Ashkenazi Jews share more common paternal lineages with other Jewish and Middle Eastern groups than with non-Jewish populations in areas where Jews lived in Eastern Europe (as you imply), Germany and the French Rhine Valley. This is consistent with Jewish traditions in placing most Jewish paternal ancestry either in the region of Canaan, or more generally in the Middle East. This would account for the former large population of jews in places like Yemen, Iraq and Libya.

    (BTW, Sephardis appear to come from the Iberian Peninsula, and so were known as ‘Spanish Jews’—before the Inquistion—which, as we know from fellow Englishmen, no one ever expects—drove them out from a place, yet again).

    And try this on for condescension, Roger, the English Public School Boy: you, over on the Isalnd, sit on unceeded native land, do you not?

    Shall I help you pack? To where shall I address your steamer trunk? 🙂

    My point: everyone ‘over there’ there has to figure out how to get along. As do all here.

    To paraphrase Jack: Negotiations are better than threats, sharing is better than suicide or phosperous bombs, bllod is thicker than water. Ain’t nobody leaving the building, baby.

    As for the original post 9and yes, we are getting back to that) Geller sent his Christmas card out under his company/corporate name, yes? As PR, OK, yes, I would expect that was part of the corporate package.

    And he can still put in that package whatever he wants. He wouldnt put in anything to deliberatley offend would he/ that wouldn’t make much sense. If it doe s offend, then I guess he loses the business. If he sends it privately and offends, then he loses a friend.

    So don’t lose anymore sleep on this issue. I doubt you are gonna be a recipient of a card from Le Geller, in the future, either way.

    Peace, Shalom, Salaam, Roger. Over and out.

  • Roger Kemble

    Oooooh, tantrum SSyphus!

    Keep rolling that rock up the hill . . . over and out and . . .

    Somewhat bemused too . . .

  • Silly Season

    @Roger Kemble #19

    You??Bemused??!

    Well, then. My work here is done.

    😉

  • Bill

    @Silly Season #19

    I think he meant “befuddled”