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Battle for Vancouver council shows a tight fight between Vision, Greens at bottom of list

October 31st, 2014 · 10 Comments

Yes, I know, polls. But they remain, as imperfect as they inevitably are, a good way for us to understand what is going on with campaigns beyond the spin and headlines.

This Justason poll, which I wrote about here, is the first attempt to get online panelists to look at something resembling a ballot to make their 10 choices for council, so it’s more accurate than just asking people whether they will support COPE or Greens or Vision or NPA.

It doesn’t account, of course, for variables like — who will actually get their voters out to the polls in the real world. But, still, thought-provoking.

Here is the Justason release on the council candidates and also her earlier poll on the mayoral race.

This poll was done between Oct. 12 and 18, so any pollster or civic reporter would expect these numbers to be changing significantly in the next few weeks.

But it’s hard to see the numbers changing a lot for the new NPA candidates for council, who all fell well below the 10th-place mark for council. They are getting no push from the party in any of the advertising, which is entirely focused on mayoral candidate Kirk LaPointe and the party name. They are out at community meetings in force, but speaking, as far as I can tell, to people who have already made up their minds. And, although they appear at NPA news conferences, they rarely get to speak and sometimes don’t even get introduced by name.

That’s in sharp contrast to the way Vision has been pushing new candidate Niki Sharma, who is front and centre in news conferences with the mayor, on stage at the fundraisers, and frequently mentioned in news releases.

 

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  • Kirk

    I’m an undecided swing voter who is running out of time. I thought I was going for LaPointe. I’m fed up with Vision’s pro-development, “our way or the bikeway”, media black out, dictatorship mentality.

    But, from what I’m hearing, the only difference I’ll get with LaPointe is the removal of the media black out. And, that’s not a deal breaker for me. Plus, it seems to be falling off of the NPA radar too, so I’m not convinced they’ll follow through if they get in power.

    Contrary to others here who will die defending the cycling hill. It’s a big “meh” for me. I’m not an avid cyclist. And, I don’t hate them either. I think of cyclists as Quebecers who are convinced everyone else is dedicating 100% of their time to defeat them. It wouldn’t surprise me if they were outside measuring bike lanes for minimal width similar to language sign police in Quebec. (BTW, Jeff, I heard your segment on CBC. I fully agree on the gap problem.)

    I don’t think the NPA is pro-car. I think they’re just trying (and failing) to conjure up a wedge issue with the parking thing. Same as tankers, which is a provincial/federal item.

    Vision has now stated in TV commercials that the Broadway subway is their TOP PRIORITY. Like, above all others. The more I read, the more I really believe this is something developers are pushing. Sure, there’s a lot of people on the B-Line, but the absolutely number one priority of this election? Above all others? Really? Who here was thinking about subways going into the election? I sure wasn’t. Anyway, I posted this video last week. I’m posting it again because I think it’s relevant.

    http://globalnews.ca/news/1632867/watch-developers-pitch-in-for-skytrain-improvements/

    If nothing else, subways shift the conversation away from homeless and housing, which Vision has failed on.

    In a way, LaPointe reminds me of Larry Campbell — everyone else is an idiot who is wasting his time. I was hoping some reporters would chime in on their experience working with him. When Campbell ran, there were articles and interviews in Vancouver Magazine and the papers. I guess reporters are trying to be impartial, or don’t want to burn bridges.

    So, I’m still undecided. In Hong Kong, they’re protesting that they only get to choose between those vetted by China. In Vancouver, we only get to choose between those vetted by developers.

    EDIT: Sorry it’s so long. Someone help me decide. The parties aren’t. 😛

  • Voice of Reason

    At one time ending homelessness was a priority of Vision but of course this is a Provincial jurisdiction and the City does not have the means to deal with the underlying issues of mental illness and drug addiction.
    Now it is a subway to UBC but again the City does not have the means to make this objective a reality.
    In both cases the City needs the Provincial and Federal governments to make these objectives a priority. So what does the Mayor do? Takes a stand against pipelines and the resource sector and generally takes partisan pro-NDP stands at every opportunity. What are the odds of a subway to UBC being constructed while there is a Liberal government in Victoria and a Conservative one in Ottawa?
    If you are undecided Kirk, I suggest you vote for who you think would best get along with the senior levels of government and improve Vancouver’s chances of getting our share of funding.

  • Christopher Porter

    Something seems off about Justason’s results. Kerry Jang 5 points behind Deather Deal? The margin of error is 5.4%, but I’m guessing there’s a bias problem with Justason’s online panel.

    There’s a reason why Raymond Louie and Kerry Jang got the most votes last election, and Bill Yuen was close for the NPA. In 2011, there were 19 polling districts where the 7 Chinese candidates placed in the top 10, regardless of what party they were running for. I wonder how many of the 327 people in Justason’s panel have a first language other than English.

    All that to say, it’s an interesting survey and I’d be happy with the top 10 on that list being elected, but don’t take it too seriously.

  • francesbula

    Hi Chris

    Bearing in mind questions people have raised about this in the past, I asked Barb what she does to reach non-English speaking Chinese voters. Like any good pollster in Vancouver, she knows that has to be factored in. Her firm uses translators. And, like an good pollster in Vancouver, the random people chosen need to reflect the demographics of the city. So this poll does.

    Still and all, I found it surprising to see Tony Tang in 20, given all that.

  • Jamie Lee Hamilton

    Not sure about this poll. Ken Low of the NPA isn’t even the top 20? That seems really suspect to me because NPA chinese candidates do well usually in 11 or 12 spot if NPA loses.

  • macb423

    I don’t quite get the “failure on homelessness” argument. The homelessness count has gone down every year for the past six years, except this past one, I believe. I have noticed less begging on the street, but maybe that’s just me.
    I’m planning to vote Vision. My reason is that they are the first government I’ve experienced that thinks 30 years ahead, not 3. The bike lanes are brilliant and the kinks are getting worked out. Chinatown is leaps and bounds better than it was six years ago. And I also remember Sam’s strike, then our last NPA mayor couldn’t negotiate with a union that had settled everywhere else. The increase in rental stock seems not to be providing affordable housing, but it’s still good to increase the rental stock as people move into the region. I also agree that the Broadway Subway is a good idea; I’ve seen the madhouse that is the B-99 Line.
    I think Vision is better at governing than they are at campaigning. I try to vote policy, not personalities, and I don’t care about campaign contributions because they all have to take them, given the absence of leadership on campaign finance reform from the Provincial Government. I also don’t care that people don’t like Gregor Robertson personally. He’s an activist leader, as is his party, and that’s bound to piss some people off. The NPA takes a passive government approach, and that works for some, but doesn’t work for me.
    So that’s my reasoning. I hope it’s useful to someone.

  • macb423

    Yes I have a bit of soft spot for Tony Tang and was surprised to see him so far down.

  • logan5

    “Sure, there’s a lot of people on the B-Line, but the absolutely number one priority of this election? Above all others? Really? Who here was thinking about subways going into the election? I sure wasn’t.”

    I don’t usually take the bus, but yesterday afternoon (Friday) I decided I would take the quick ride from Cambie to Main. So I stood in the line which went way back into the Canada Line station. One bus comes and the line moves up about 10 feet in a 60 foot line up. Another bus, another 10 feet. At that rate I would have had to wait for 3 or 4 more buses to come by, so I walked home in the rain.

    If it’s like that every day then I would have to say that Broadway RT is at least very close to the top priority for Vancouver.

  • Brilliant

    LOL Gregor Robertson governs for the rich in the Resort Municipality of Vancouver. The only forward thinking he does is how to enrich his developer buddies.

  • MB

    At one time ending homelessness was a priority of Vision but of course this is a Provincial jurisdiction and the City does not have the means to deal with the underlying issues of mental illness and drug addiction.

    Now it is a subway to UBC but again the City does not have the means to make this objective a reality.
    The city was a full partner with the province on the former issue by donating the land upon which the province built 14 apartment buildings for the homeless and disadvantaged. The city also provides some social services. Both parties slipped on Step Two at one noteable site by failing to provide adequate social services, but I believe that’s being worked on now.
    I would agree with you on the latter issue, but that doesn’t mean the city cannot partner in some way (e.g. donating the land for an expanded station at Broadway x Cambie), or that we are locked into one-party rule in Ottawa or Victoria for the entire 100+ year lifespan of a subway.