The latest Justason poll is out. My story is here, but there is already all kinds of mad spinning going on.
City hall’s Kevin Quinlan has tweeted out that Mayor Robertson has risen in popularity as the main news, while CityCaucus’s headline is that the NPA is in a statistical dead heat with Vision.
Vision people, meanwhile, are pooh-poohing the poll, saying people don’t vote for parties, they vote for leaders. Therefore, the vote intention for the party is kind of meaningless and the approval rating for the mayor is the key difference.
I await your analysis.
59 responses so far ↓
1 spartikus // Aug 3, 2011 at 8:24 am
My analysis: Only 5% of the electorate rate the bike lanes as an issue (either pro or con).
Nevertheless we will probably still discuss it [here] as if the fate of civilization is on the line.
Voters are swinging left. No one cares about chickens, wheat fields or lobster dinners. We have been wasting our time – let me put this in allcaps for emphasis WASTING OUR TIME – on such minutiae. That is what has been really “goofy”.
I know who Bill McCreery is and I have a sense of what he represents. Ditto Bickerton. Ditto Klassen.
For the life of me I couldn’t name the other NPA candidates without looking it up.
The NPA campaign runners need to navel-gaze and re-evaluate the campaign they’ve been running.
That’s my take away.
2 Sean Antrim // Aug 3, 2011 at 8:28 am
Important to remember that this will all change over the next few months as millions are spent on campaigns.
I wonder why ‘consultation with the business community’ has dropped off so sharply. Bike lanes?
It’s also interesting to hear that the Vancouver Greens and “Vancouver Citizen’s Voice” are getting more involved, possibly fill the void of politicians running on the left?
3 IanS // Aug 3, 2011 at 8:37 am
Haven’t had time to go over the poll results yet, but the irony of this in @Spartikus #1 kind of jumped right off the screen at me:
“My analysis: Only 5% of the electorate rate the bike lanes as an issue (either pro or con).
Nevertheless we will probably still discuss it [here] as if the fate of civilization is on the line.”
4 Dave Pasin // Aug 3, 2011 at 8:41 am
Well lets see
Sparty’s account is about par for the course … quelle surprise
the reality ,,,,, who knows? but as we get closer the #’s can and will get more interesting.
What is readily apparent is that many seem to be parking their votes with COPE for the time being. One has to wonder what the members think of Chudnovsky’s deal making and macinations with the devil right now?
I suspect the disaffection for Vision is far deeper than this poll lets on and is just the tip of the iceberg in their slide.
What everyone forgets is that in ’08 the NPA was about where Vision is at this point and the 2 were close till 2 weeks to go when the train finally went off the tracks for the NPA for any # of reasons.
This is just a snapshot in time when interest is low.
Lets see what happens when the silly season gets into gear in September to see any real trends.
5 spartikus // Aug 3, 2011 at 8:52 am
How many of us knew Dave Pasin is an NPA candidate for Parks Board? Be honest.
I didn’t, until I Googled your name.
No offense intended. Just sayin’
6 Dave Pasin // Aug 3, 2011 at 10:00 am
Fair enough Sparty
thanks for the Google (now you know!) and no I am not the former Bruins player (woulda been fun to have a stint in the NHL)
How many know the Vision Park Board Candidates other than Sarah and Aaron?
Just sayin’ lol
7 Paul T. // Aug 3, 2011 at 10:04 am
Spartikus, Bike Lanes are only a small portion of the people who are ticked off by Gregor and Vision.
Let’s remember we also have wheat fields, his skytrain ticket, the GCAP which wants to force everyone to be vegan, lack of respect of public process, gorging themselves on lobster in Halifax, VSB more interested in arguing than solving problems, flip-flop on housing the homeless, over-grown public grass areas, backyard chickens, Gregor’s love of how things are done in communist China, etc. etc.
And if those issues don’t get you questioning our leadership, let’s remember this is the council that WILL destroy the viaducts.
and
This is the mayor who incited a riot with his failure to plan ahead.
This groups days are numbered.
8 Baran // Aug 3, 2011 at 10:09 am
I think Spartikus is right on. Backyard chickens and bike lanes may be a popular topic here and on NPA sites, but they are not on people’s minds.
NPA, unfortunately, continues to make an issue out of everything that’s going on at the City to the point that I have no idea what they stand for. The nasty nature of the City Caucus website has certainly turned me away from even considering them.
9 Max // Aug 3, 2011 at 10:45 am
Robertson and Vision have alienated pockets of people right across the board.
The bike lanes may be small potatoes, but then again, businesses have no opportunity to vote.
Think all those groups that show up for a say when it comes to rezoning/development – only to have Vision vote lock step and rubber stamp it through. Shannon Mews being the most recent victim.
Those in the ‘Viaducts’ area will be next – Woodlands, Srathcona the DTES.
10 Tiktaalik // Aug 3, 2011 at 10:47 am
It’s nice to know that I’m not alone in feeling like Vision/NPA act like the same party on too many issues.
11 boohoo // Aug 3, 2011 at 11:05 am
@9
You certainly aren’t although I would replace ‘act’ with ‘are’.
12 Tiktaalik // Aug 3, 2011 at 11:24 am
@boohoo 10
Yeah that’s a fair amendment.
I expected more from Vision. I was expecting there to be a meaningful gap between the parties, but I would consider them to be both centrist parties that do little to change the status-quo.
13 Paul T. // Aug 3, 2011 at 12:37 pm
As for the analysis that voters are leaning further to the left. We just had a big poll done in May with a very low margin of error. I would argue that voters are leaning further to the left throughout the city. Perhaps more on the downtown eastside and kingsway area. But the Conservative Party did increase their over-all stake in the city by 2% from 2008.
This is pretty muddy since federal allegiances don’t necessarily translate into municipal voting trends, however I think it’s safe to argue that anyone voting CPC federally wouldn’t vote for Gregor or Vision.
14 Tim Latanville // Aug 3, 2011 at 12:40 pm
Why does Justason never ask a straight up question: who would you vote for, Gregor Robertson or Suzanne Anton? i bet you she does and won’t reveal the results because it would make Anton and the NPA look silly. Any political pollster worth their salt would ask this question.
15 Dan Cooper // Aug 3, 2011 at 1:00 pm
As long as we’re not talking about bicycles or bicycle lanes…here’s a fellow who makes the Vancouver mayor and council look outright wimpy:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/02/vilnius-mayor-crackdown-parking-violators
Woof!
And now, to the topic. Myself personally, I look at the parties AND the individuals (and the general environment), not just the leaders. Certainly it seems that others also vote split tickets – or presumably there would always be single-party councils. No?
16 Chris // Aug 3, 2011 at 1:16 pm
Without asking the 2nd preference of voters, the poll is kind of useless. Since COPE and Vision are not running full slates, you need to know what the 2nd choice is of voters to know who is going to win. Is COPE support an indication of a frustration with Vision or is it a swing to the left?
The dynamics of this election will be more akin to preferential balloting then first-past-the-post. The winners will be those that can appeal to more than their core supporters.
17 spartikus // Aug 3, 2011 at 1:22 pm
But the Conservative Party did increase their over-all stake in the city by 2% from 2008.
Right.
What is Paul omitting here? Let me demonstrate:
The riding in Vancouver the Tories had the highest popular support was Vancouver South, where Wai Young garnered 43.3%.
Parties to the left of the Tories captured 56.3%
That was in the best riding for the Tories.
The same situation exists municipally…although unlike Federal NDP and Liberals, Vision and COPE are running a common slate.
If you go to Justason’s website you can see precisely where VV is vulnerable. But it’s not translating into support for the NPA.
It’s going to COPE.
The NPA braintrust should ask themselves why they aren’t the beneficiaries.
But then who am I? Just some schmuck.
Time for another NPA press release attacking the kids at Lawn to Loaves!
18 Bill Lee // Aug 3, 2011 at 2:44 pm
There are 3 press releases with background and graphs at http://www.justasonmi.com/
1) Municipal government performance scores weakening
2) Approval of the mayor high, but softening
3 ) Vision-COPE contest keeps NPA in the race
though looking at the colours, some graphs are difficult to match with the legend
-Dates of research: July 11-15, 2011
-Methodology: A telephone-online hybrid combining 376 telephone and 115 online panel surveys
-Margin of error: ±5.1 percentage points 19 in 20 times
-Research Sponsor: Justason Market Intelligence.
Best of luck thinking of sampling forecasts in July.
19 Paul // Aug 3, 2011 at 6:38 pm
“Parties to the left of the Tories captured 56.3%”
Like I said Sparti… Allegiances between voters federally and municipally get muddied. My point was that a federal CPC voter is very unlikely to support VV and even less likely to support COPE.
So the question will be, will enough Blue Liberals be fed up with this council’s antics to finally turf them out of office? And will the surge in support for the right be enough to push the NPA over the top?
20 Everyman // Aug 3, 2011 at 7:06 pm
I’d argue voters aren’t “swinging Left”, they’re swinging away from Vision and towards a party they think will protect their neghbourhoods from the pro-developer parties. Ellen Woodsworth has done a good job of portraying COPE as a party that won’t kowtow to developers. Too bad they aren’t running a candidate for Mayor.
21 Julia // Aug 3, 2011 at 8:00 pm
Ellen Woodsworth can’t even explain a property tax bill. How would you trust her to protect a neighbourhood? She has proved to me time after time that anything outside her agenda goes way over her head. She scares me.
22 Lari // Aug 3, 2011 at 8:14 pm
Yes, Ellen leaves someting to be desired. So does Elizabeth Ball (she who successfully sued for brain damage), and Tim Stevenson, and frankly the Mayor. Aside from the fact that he’s cute. How do we encourage and reward intelligent, capable people to run?
23 boohoo // Aug 3, 2011 at 9:54 pm
“How do we encourage and reward intelligent, capable people to run?”
I would suggest not tying them to this ridiculous party system. Let them run on their capabilities, intelligence and ideas rather than towing the predictable party line.
24 Morry // Aug 3, 2011 at 10:03 pm
“Robertson and Vision have alienated pockets of people right across the board.”
Goodbye Mr Chips wheat pushing nut-bar
25 Adele Chow // Aug 3, 2011 at 10:46 pm
What on earth has Anton done, except flip-flop? With her running for mayor and destined to lose, the NPA risks having no one on council after November. Good riddens as far as I’m concerned.
26 Joseph Jones // Aug 4, 2011 at 12:53 am
Voting reform wanted now. Right now.
Say, for instance, each voter gets ten votes for Council. Those votes can either be for or against — and any number of those votes can be allocated to any number of candidates.
Ten shots, yea or nay, in any direction.
Voting could be fun. But it won’t be.
Imagine someone holding office after having totted up a negative vote. But with a less negative vote than somebody else who did not get “in”!
27 bc bud // Aug 4, 2011 at 1:31 am
Anton cannot be happy with the predicament she now finds herself in, surrounded by a group of NPA candidates of questionable quality and poll numbers showing she trails Robertson by 20 points, ouch.
28 Max // Aug 4, 2011 at 8:52 am
@ bc bud #25:
What do you mean by ‘ surrounded by a group of NPA candidates with questionale quality’?
If you’ve read the bio’s on any of these people, which gathering by you statement, that you have not, then you would openly see that the people running have varied backgrounds in business, legal, activism, financial. They are far from under qualified.
And you seem to miss the fact that voters have left the COPE/Vison alliance but are supporting COPE.
So you have to wonder how those members that voted to support this alliance, again, are feeling now.
29 Max // Aug 4, 2011 at 8:59 am
@ Everyman #18:
I would suggest you look at Woodworth’s and Cadman’s voting records. They have voted lock step with their Vision brothers more often than not – including rezoning applications.
Shannon Mews was a one break in the pattern.
VV George Chow voted no on the Shannon Mews redevelopment as well.
You folks seem to forget, land developers donated HUGE dollars to the Vision Vancouver campagin. And we are all see their rewared for doing so.
30 Larry Campbell // Aug 4, 2011 at 9:25 am
I’d like to kill a rumour before it starts.
I will NOT be coming out of an exceedingly comfortable retirement in the Senate to run one more time as the morality … er … mayoralty candidate for COPE or Vision or any combination of the above.
Even if Tim Louis gets elected I will stay put, though I may have to apply extra wax to my eyebrows and order more Fifteen Ways to a Transcendental Demeanour CDs.
Hey, I’m workin’ on it.
31 Max // Aug 4, 2011 at 9:26 am
Love these pics:
Asleep at the helm? Vancouver directors at critical Metro Van meeting July 29
http://cityhallwatch.wordpress.com
32 Max // Aug 4, 2011 at 9:40 am
If you want to get an idea on who has voted for what during rezoning meetings, look to the Vancouver Council Votes database.
Interesting to note: Cadman has the highest absentee record with 14 missed meetings.
How does that help the people who voted him in?
33 David Hadaway // Aug 4, 2011 at 10:41 am
There must be plenty of people, I’m one, who want a left of centre government but who can no longer vote for any COPE candidate, whatever their qualities, as that would be explicitly a vote for Vision.
As to the usefulness of polls, it is minimal because our rotten ‘at large’ system is essentially a lottery designed to benefit those with the deepest pockets and most influential friends, guaranteed to give a result that bears little relationship to the wishes of the minority that vote, never mind the alienated majority of the electorate.
34 Max // Aug 4, 2011 at 11:16 am
Here is another link worth looking at, the redvelopment of Little Mountain, what people were told vs. reality: (like I mentioned, alientation of pockets of people)
http://vancouver.openfile.ca/vancouver/file/2011/08/social-housing-community-and-vancouvers-political-confidence
35 boohoo // Aug 4, 2011 at 11:45 am
Max, I don’t get your point with that last link.
Did you go to the open house btw? Submit your comments?
36 bc bud // Aug 4, 2011 at 2:44 pm
@ Max #26
Actually, questions continue to be raised about the quality of your candidates, especially after the abrupt departure of Jesse Johl, dumped by the NPA for failing to show up to meetings or return phone calls …. one has to queston how many other embarrassments lurk within this current slate of relative unknowns ready to cause even further embarrassment for the NPA.
37 Dave Pasin // Aug 4, 2011 at 3:19 pm
@bc bud me thinks that quaity bud has burned mass quantities of grey matter
not to worry I will grab some Cheetos for you…
if that’s your bag you may want to listen to the whisper campaigns within your party about your own candidates and I am sure there are some juicy ones lol
As for info or personal dirt on ANY candidate from ANY party if that’s your bag I suggest trying the US political scene – where your dog’s sexuality may even be up for discussion
I suspect most prefer to sticking to disagreements about issues.
38 Morry // Aug 4, 2011 at 4:34 pm
Without Anton in a mayoralty race the NPA will win. She has shown no leadership skills and has demonstrated she is not Mayor materials.
39 David Hadaway // Aug 4, 2011 at 4:42 pm
Well, Mr. Bud, I guess this time round at least they’ll all be making sure to pay full fare on Skytrain!
40 Agustin // Aug 4, 2011 at 6:35 pm
@ Dave Pasin, #34:
A comment from a Vancouver voter; take it as you will:
I see that you are a candidate for Parks Board. Your willingness to jump into the bickering on this comment board does not speak well for your ability to rise above the fray in government.
["I suspect most prefer to sticking (sic) to disagreements about issues" is outweighed by "me thinks (sic) that quaity (sic) bud has burned mass quantities of grey matter."]
41 Max // Aug 4, 2011 at 7:12 pm
@Augustin #37;
You want entertainment; follow some of the VV candidates on twitter.
It is an eye-opener to say the least.
Let’s just state, no filtering system.
42 spartikus // Aug 4, 2011 at 7:24 pm
You want entertainment; follow some of the VV candidates on twitter.
Hmmm.
I wonder when the #NDP separatist attacks are going to trickle down to Vision #Vancouver since most of their elected officials are also NDP?
I believe he’s referring to Nycole Turmel here. If you find it amusing to stretch the concept of guilt-by-association to the limits of science, here’s your guy.
You’ll have to Ctrl+A to see it as Mr. Lamarche has chosen white as his text colour (on a white background).
He, uh, might want to fix that.
43 Agustin // Aug 4, 2011 at 7:57 pm
@ Max, #38: You’ve misinterpreted my post. It was not, believe it or not, a partisan shot. It was a comment directly to Dave. I would say the same thing to a candidate of any party that made a comment similar to Dave’s on this board.
I don’t follow Twitter but if what you say is true then there is an opportunity for candidates opposing Vision Vancouver to show that they can take the higher road.
44 Michelle // Aug 4, 2011 at 8:15 pm
VIsion Vancouver & City Hall hire hands and hacks strategy: start the big lying. Order polls. make up the numbers…maybe the people of Vancouver will be stupid enough to beleive the crap theur pushing and give them three more ridiculous years. Dream on! The only real jobs you may be qualified for are for ” burger flip flopping” in a fast food restaurant near you. And that would be a let down for the fast food industry. Sooo…yes LMAO! KQuinlan stop using taxpayers money for your own and mayors benefit. Do it from home instead.
45 Dave Pasin // Aug 5, 2011 at 7:21 am
@Augustin #40
Perhaps I should clarify as the sarcasm didn’t seem to make it’s point
We can debate issues any time with pleasure.
Personally I won’t engage in personal attacks as they serve no constructive purpose other than be injurous to more than the party being attacked and add nothing to the debate at hand.
I have no problem if you disagree with me on ideas or issue that are substantive and relevant that is what debate is about.
Funny thing….. I don’t agree with Sparty very much but on occassion I do.
I use this point as an example that even when disagreeing with someone you may have common ground on some things if you actually listen and respect that view rather than dismiss it out of hand.
I am running because I have a view of what the Park Board represents and how it should be operated and funded.
My view differs from that of some and that’s fine. Feel free to contact me and I am happy to discuss it.
Cheers
46 Everyman // Aug 5, 2011 at 7:50 am
@Agustin 40 – Would that be the same high road that the Vision Vancouver pick for school board communications officer took?
Max/Julia – Woodsworth is apparently doing a better job of convincing residents that COPE is interested in residents concerns about their neighbourhoods than Vision or the NPA. Anton tries, but its rather hard for the NPA to convince people they are not pro-developer.
47 spartikus // Aug 5, 2011 at 8:35 am
Funny thing….. I don’t agree with Sparty very much but on occassion I do.
Comity! And it’s Friday too!
@Agustin 40 – Would that be the same high road that the Vision Vancouver pick for school board communications officer took?
That person was not running for office. Yes, there’s a difference. People are allowed to hold, and voice, political opinions and not be inherently penalized in the workforce. Did Mr. Heinrich violate Canada’s Hate Speech laws? No. He voiced an opinion as a private citizen. Was the job competition “rigged”? To my knowledge no one has made that accusation publicly – it’s simply noise about him being “unsuitable”.
Political candidates can say anything they want too – look at Rob Ford – the difference is they are trying to convince other people to do something for them (ie. vote for them). Sometimes bombast pays off, but more often than not Canadians like their leaders to be bland technocrats…er…I mean magnaminous.
Woodsworth is apparently doing a better job of convincing residents that COPE is interested in residents concerns about their neighbourhoods than Vision or the NPA
Exactly. COPE support has doubled. Vision’s has obviously dropped and the NPA hasn’t gone up more than the margin of error.
Someone upthread mentioned “second choices” on the ballot.
Well, exactly. Who stands to benefit there?
If Blue Liberals were in play you’d see different polling numbers methinks.
But then, Vancouver elections are always about turnout…
48 Agustin // Aug 5, 2011 at 8:53 am
@ Dave, #45: Thanks for that. As the election gets nearer (and the weather turns worse
) I may get in touch to run some topics by you. Cheers.
@ spartikus, #47: “Canadians like their leaders to be bland technocrats…er…I mean magnaminous”
There’s certainly a difference! I like my leaders to be able to resist getting into bickering but that doesn’t mean they have to be passionless or emotionless. I want them to be passionate about policy and feel empathy for the population, but I don’t want them to get into fights that would make Dad threaten to turn the car around.
49 Max // Aug 5, 2011 at 9:59 am
@ Spartikus # 47:
Kurt Heinrich was more than just a ‘private citizen’.
His title was ‘Communications’ for Vision Vancouver.
50 Everyman // Aug 6, 2011 at 10:31 am
@ Spartikus 47
“That person was not running for office. Yes, there’s a difference. People are allowed to hold, and voice, political opinions and not be inherently penalized in the workforce…”
That only makes the difference far worse. If you don’t like David Pasin’s comments here, you don’t have to vote for him. However none of us have the option of voting on Kurt Heirich’s appointment, despite his overly partisan comments, which should have rendered him ineligible for the job. And I still haven’t seen anything convincing from Patti Bacchus explaining why the existing VSB communications positions were eliminated, only to be filled with Mr. Heinrich mere weeks later.
51 spartikus // Aug 6, 2011 at 6:23 pm
despite his overly partisan comments, which should have rendered him ineligible for the job.
Ah, I see. It’s “partisan comments” that rendered him ineligible.
You understand we live in a democracy, governed by a Charter of Rights and Freedoms?
But very well, I see you’re with Klassen on this. How do you plan on enforcing this? Tribunals? Star Chambers?
52 Max // Aug 6, 2011 at 11:06 pm
@ Spartikus #51:
Our so called ‘Charter’ instituted by one government in the 80′s, needs a rethink. It needs to be brought up to current times.
Too many miscreants hide behide our ‘Charter’.
53 sv // Aug 7, 2011 at 12:26 am
So you like rules as long as you get to make them.
54 Everyman // Aug 7, 2011 at 9:16 am
@ Spartikus 51
And how would you expect someone like Mr. Heinrich to work with an NPA dominated school board? The taxpayer would be stuck with another overpriced severance package. The same goes for all the Vision partisan hirings. I wonder what Penny Ballem’s severance package looks like? And I sincerely hope we get to find out.
55 spartikus // Aug 7, 2011 at 9:38 am
And how would you expect someone like Mr. Heinrich to work with an NPA dominated school board?
In democratic countries that uphold the freedom of speech, individuals are typically given a chance to show their professionalism regardless of their politics, religion, gender, sexuality and race.
It’s a principle many millions have died defending over the last century, but I digress…
56 Max // Aug 7, 2011 at 11:17 am
@ Everyman #54:
re Ballem: I read somewhere her severance package would be over the $1M mark.
57 Max // Aug 7, 2011 at 11:42 am
From Kurt’s ‘resume’:
Who I know, what they know
I know the Mayor of Vancouver. And Kevin Quinlan, who communicates for the Mayor. I know a lot of the councillors and powerbrokers at City Hall, too. These people know a lot about governance.
58 Everyman // Aug 7, 2011 at 10:37 pm
He knows the Mayor and some councillors – who are the ones who know a lot about governance? ; )
59 Bill McCreery // Aug 16, 2011 at 9:49 pm
@Baron 8:
“NPA, unfortunately, continues to make an issue out of everything that’s going on at the City to the point that I have no idea what they stand for.”
Really? Spartikus seems to have formed some conclusions about where some NPA candidates stand:
“I know who Bill McCreery is and I have a sense of what he represents. Ditto Bickerton. Ditto Klassen.”
But, @Tiktaalik 10:
“It’s nice to know that I’m not alone in feeling like Vision/NPA act like the same party on too many issues.”
I’ve been away, but I can’t let such a statement go unchallenged even at this late date in this post.
If you have read my posts over the past months here and elsewhere, and you have the ability to make a fair appraisal of them, there is no way you can conclude I as an NPA candidate, will not, when elected, conduct myself very differently than the Vision caucus. Even where I share an objective, such as improved biking, I differ with Mayor Greg & co. on their demonstrated inability to properly realize them in a fiscally responsible way that actually works.
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