Frances Bula header image 2
← →

Another day, another poll, a jump in disapproval for Mayor Gregor Robertson

November 30th, 2010 · 43 Comments

This year promises to be the most-polled ever in advance of a civic election, as various polling companies pile on to what promises to be a hard-fought battle for Vancouver city council in 2011.

The latest out, another Justason Market Intelligence poll, showing that some noticeable fraction of people are moving from undecided to disapproving of the mayor and that there’s an increasing number of  people cranky about the ongoing Olympic village mess.

Barb Justason also tested out a couple of names in the poll as potential mayoral candidates for the Non-Partisan Association, to whether having a name attached to the party improved its standing.

According to her poll, naming current councillor Suzanne Anton as a mayoral candidate brought the numbers separating the party together, from a 15-point difference to a three-point difference. She also tried Tung Chan, the former councillor and executive director of SUCCESS. That didn’t close the gap as much

When I talked to Vision Vancouver ED Ian Baillie, he said the poll reflected some general trends Vision is seeing, although said their numbers indicate very solid support for the mayor and the Vision team’s approach on many issues.

But the truth of any of these polls doesn’t matter as much as the more important message that’s going out to potential NPA candidates, which is that they have a fighting chance to beat Vision Vancouver. That’s what the party is looking to prove, desperately these days, as good candidates start to consider whether to run. (I know they’re out there. I’m starting to get calls from or have others tell me about good, credible potentials are who pondering whether to go for it.)

If the polls appear to tell them that Vision is unbeatable, they’ll stay home and run their businesses.  If it looks as though the gap is narrower than they thought, that there’s a couple of issues Vision is vulnerable on, that there’s a reasonable chance of winning, they’ll start collecting money to run.

On a completely other topic: To the person who posted a remark to the blog this weekend  that I’m a “self-important C-word” for not posting his (I’m assuming it’s a him) comments on one of the threads — nice way to express your frustration over this crucial issue! Maybe your mother needs to come over and wash out your mouth with soap.

Also, a reminder to all that I occasionally take weekends off and, when I do, remarks from people new to the blog don’t get moderated until I check back in.

Categories: 2011 Vancouver Civic Election

  • Todd

    Aside from the negative downward trend for VV, the biggest surprise arising out of this poll is that if the NPA has a high profile candidate (in this case the hypothetical Suzanne Anton), VV is in a statistical dead heat at 41% to 38% for the NPA.

    Imagine if the NPA had a higher profile, much more credible candidate?

  • George

    I’m sorry that happened to you Frances, there is no need for that kind of disrespect.
    Enjoy your day….

  • spartikus

    I’m sure I’ll be called a Vision hack for even breathing this…but the Olympic Village is an albatross. No matter who wears it.

    It’s the project so nice, it’ll bring down governments twice!

  • MB

    @ Frances Bula: “On a completely other topic …”

    You’re doing a FAB job, Frances!

    I know there is only one of you, but is it possible to have a surrogate / guest / substitute moderator / poster when you need time off?

    R&R is very important, and perhaps the Bula Blog will attain unheard of heights of energy, creativity and longevity if its main proponent is well rested and arrives back with a full charge in the batteries.

  • Jason King

    Actually Spartikus, just the opposite…I’m glad you’re admitting that the NPA was taken down by the Millennium project rather than the “overwhelming voter support” for Vision.

    While I think most voters are concerned about Millennium, I think it’s the way this government has conducted itself that’s the problem. You even see that in the bike lanes…while support for/against is evenly split, most agree it was handled very poorly. (And this is NOT an attempt to talk about bike lanes! I’m talking about Visions handling of issues in general)

  • IanS

    @jason king #5,

    I think Spartikus has the right of it on this point. There’s been a number of bumps on the Vision road this past year, but the Olympic Village is the elephant in the room.

    Yeah, there are other issues on which one might be critical of Vision (I certainly am!), but IMO, the OV is the big one.

  • IanS

    Oh, and sorry to hear about that comment Frances. This blog and discussion board are a valuable service, if for no other reason than they allow us to interact with candidates such as Bill M and potential candidates (I hope) such as Michael Geller.

  • spartikus

    I’m sorry Jason King…why are you using quotes around “overwhelming voter support”. That would indicate you are, you know, quoting me. Exact words. Etc.

    I do forget things from time to time. Perhaps you could remind me where and when I said this?

    Frances, I’ve mentioned this before, but there are commenting solutions for WordPress out there that will reduce your workload.

  • Jason King

    Spartikus….my apologies…I was using that for emphasis, not attempting to attribute that to you…sorry, poor use of quotes.

    Pro-Vision supporters have tried to justify most of their parties decisions by saying that Vision had overwhelming voter approval and so had the mandate to do whatever they want.

    My point was simply that Millennium was the central reason for the NPA loss last year….the tide swung heavily to Vision only after the internal documents came out about the state of the Millennium project.

  • landlord

    Or you could just cc: everything to the Ministry of Truth at 12th & Cambie and let them sort it out. They can sub-contract to FD Element who can then drop their fake blog and edit other blogs directly. Win-win.

    Blogs are great but personally I don’t believe anything until I’ve seen it in writing or secretly video-taped with decent sound quality. Even then I remain skeptical. People say and do the damndest things. Particularly if they conned enough people into voting for them and their brand of “change”.
    I miss Muriel Honey.

  • Chris Keam

    They are called “scare quotes”

    http://www.informatics.sussex.ac.uk/department/docs/punctuation/node31.html

    Actual quotation:

    “Quite often scare quotes are used to express irony or sarcasm: ”

    SOMETIMES ALL-CAPS IS BETTER FOR INDICATING EMPHASIS BUT NO DOUBT JASON MADE AN “HONEST MISTAKE”

    lol

  • Chris Keam

    Also, failing direct evidence, I think it’s unfair to characterize Spartikus as a Pro-Vision supporter, or party member.

    It’s possible to support individual policies without being in thrall to the party itself.

  • Jason king

    Chris, reread what I wrote…aside from my poor use of quotes I wasn’t in anyway stating that spartikus was pro vision…I was stating that this is the pro vision stance. I have absolutely no idea what his political stance is.

  • spartikus

    Pro-Vision supporters have tried to justify most of their parties decisions by saying that Vision had overwhelming voter approval and so had the mandate to do whatever they want.

    To this observer, that’s not a fair characterization. While not black and white, generally speaking governments have, by definition, a mandate to institute their stated platform when elected. When they introduce things that were not in their platform, such as the HST, then they can be criticized. The margin of victory is also an indication of mandate. You wouldn’t change Canada’s system of government from constitutional monarchy to republic with 50% +1 of the vote. But you might with 85%.

    I don’t see a lot of support from anyone on this blog for some of the decisions made by Vision outside of their platform – for example, changing the rules for the way city staff interact with the media.

    Voter anger over Issue X or Y of course comes in to play, and if the Olympic Village plays a part in Vision Vancouver losing the next election as it did in the previous election, so it goes.

    I, for one, won’t claim the victor doesn’t have a “mandate”.

  • Jason King

    Spartikus….actually I agree with you. So let me clarify.

    My point was simply that many pro-Vision supporters, in previous threads, have stated that one initiative or another has the support of the “majority”

  • Morry

    I have a very jaundiced views of Polls and the remarks made by those who comment on blogs. Increasingly these days these “posts/ comments” are being posted by paid blog followers.

    VV are gong to feel the wrath of the voters based on how they contain costs and provide ongoing services.

  • Jason King

    Argh…there should be a “remove” button for errors…lets try that again shall we….

    Spartikus….actually I generally agree with you. So let me clarify.

    Many pro-Vision supporters, in previous threads, have stated that one initiative or another has the support of the “majority” and therefore people shouldn’t complain because this is what they ran on and they had “overwhelming support” from the public. The point I was making was that I don’t believe the last election was actually won based on a platform or mandate, but rather lost as a result of Millennium.

    I believe Vision is governing like they won a landslide and have the support of the majority…I believe that’s a big mistake. I think this “view” combined with a general desire to govern based on ideology rather than pragmatism and good governance has resulted in them continuing a downward slide.

    Yes, governments have a right to implement their “stated mandate” but if they govern like they had a landslide when they really were elected in backlash, they risk upsetting their electorate and losing the next election.

  • Chris Keam

    Hey Jason:

    Don’t sell yourself short. I’m confident you know exactly what scare quotes and all caps are used for.

    From earlier this week:

    “Jason King // Nov 26, 2010 at 10:07 am

    I guess Parks aren’t “green” enough for Vision’s “green agenda”.

    Dying to hear the SPIN on this one…..”

    If Spartikus’ political leanings aren’t the issue, then why conflate his comments with your p.o.v. regarding Vision supporters?

    Juxtaposition is a powerful tool in creating meaning for audiences.

  • spartikus

    I believe Vision is governing like they won a landslide and have the support of the majority…I believe that’s a big mistake.

    That’s a theory. They do have a strong mandate to institute their election platform, though. If the public doesn’t like it in actuality, they’ll be voted out soundly.

    But we can’t continually second guess the intentions of electorate based on the tea leaf reading of the peanut gallery – Oh you may have won a landslide, but….you can’t do anything.

    We would be ungovernable.

  • Jason King

    Actually Chris, the culprit of my first post was simply time. I was doing 3 things at once when I wrote it…next time I’ll take my time so I don’t need to clarify my comment. I will state clearly, again…I was in no way trying paint Spartikus in any particular light or attribute the comments I made to him, and I apologize that this was the way it came across.

    As far as you’re concerned Chris,I’m trying to avoid the BS back and forth…I’m busy and I’ve got work to do. I’m sure you can find someone else to play with.

  • Morven

    Believe it or not, some of us out here are apolitical as far as the party line is concerned and support policies that are either well argued and thought out or are clearly in the public interest and can be either of the left or the right.

    Which is why I am in the camp that asks for cogent analysis to be provided in order to garner my support (the camp is a pretty small camp I will admit).
    -30-

  • Diane

    Frances,

    Regarding the nasty weekend poster, I wonder if this might be the right time to remind ALL the posters here that this is, after all, YOUR blog and that we are all just guests on it. I’m pretty sure that there is no law that says you have to host this forum – or answer to anyone.

    I, for one am grateful that you bother to do both.

    TEAM FRANCES!

  • Tiktaalik

    The OV is a disaster but I’m not sure if Vision has done anything to exacerbate the problem. To me it feels like they have something that is inherently a disaster from the beginning, and they’re managing that disaster in a fairly adequate way. Wouldn’t the issue of the OV project not selling and failing sink any party’s poll numbers?

    Essentially Vision has been unable to make millionaires open up their wallets and start buying. As far as I know they’ve let Rennie have free reign to do whatever is necessary to sell the project. What else should they have done?

    What would the NPA have done that would have made this project sell faster?

  • landlord

    @spartikus: “We would be ungovernable” (un-scary, direct-type q marks).

    We’re not now? That would never do. Mob rule (or President Palin) would surely follow. As the level of deception, collusion and greed involved in the recent near-collapse of the world financial markets becomes increasingly clear to voters (not to mention the general disappointment with what “change” has turned into in the USA: millions of homes foreclosed, massive job-loss, pointless wars, etc.) and the impact of Cablegate on the credibility of our politician’s statements on international affairs or indeed our s0-called sovereignty (does Harper really think the Supreme Court is standing in his way?) we soon will be un-governable. What politician can cut services and impose tax hikes and hope people elect them again?

    If perfect candidates like Obama and Robertson can’t live up to their extravagant claims, who can? They’ll all be shown up as the inter-changable, disposable marionettes for wealthy special interests that they’ve always been.

    It’s time to finally drop the nationalist pretence and finally admit that we are citizen/shareholders of a global Corporate State. Elections are like ball games, entertaining but essentially a meaningless diversion. None of the serious decisions affecting the course of nations (let alone municipalities) are made by the bought-an-paid-for bozos sitting around in legislatures or consulates.

    In many ways it’s better to be governed by the Board of Directors of the Big 5 or some Ontario pension fund or (God forbid) the Rockefeller brothers? At least most of them went to Harvard or Yale and they don’t pretend to care much one way or another about you and your little concerns. They’ll be happy to lend you as much money as you want to lose in socially-responsible, environmentally-sustainable pipe-dreams.

    All the NPA has to do is promise to be cautious with money, to try and undo some of the damage done to the Senior Management cadre and re-build public confidence in the consultative process. No changing the world, no selling the most expensive condos they could build, no sticking your know-it-all nose into other jurisdictions and no NDP moles. Cake walk.

  • Michael Geller

    “What would the NPA have done that would have made this project sell faster?”

    I can’t resist!

    I can’t say what the NPA would have done, but if I had been involved in the decision making, once I learned that the social housing and rental housing units were costing $110 million, I would have announced that they were going to be sold off, (possibly with leased land so as not to conflict with the other market units) to recover their costs and a small profit. I would have marketed these units very quickly as affordable ownership housing, to populate the community. I would have committed to use the sales proceeds to build more social housing on adjacent lands, and elsewhere in the city.

    If others did not agree with this approach, I would have started the process to find a suitable non-profit operator in November 2009, so that the units could be leased up in spring 2010 as soon as the Olympics were over. I would never have allowed them to remain empty for eight months.

    As the landowner and holder of the loan, I would have worked closely with the developer and his marketing team to get the sales program underway. I would have allowed Rennie to come up with a realistic pricing schedule, noting that the market had changed since before the Olympics. While wanting to minimize my losses, I would not have allowed the sales program to stall for six months, trying to get more equity from the developer. You can’t get blood from a stone.

    I would have finished off the city’s portion of the landscaping, rather than allow areas to be covered in ugly gravel and chain linked fencing. I would have allowed cars to park in front of the presentation centre…I would not have allowed the police to tow them away. I would have undertaken a few other ‘beautification’ projects.

    I would have worked with the developer to get some interim retail uses into the retail space, along with some food kiosks in the square, and organized a variety of events with the developer to animate the town square and general area, just as was done in the early stages of Granville Island and UniverCity at SFU.

    I might have considered a regular farmers market over the summer, as well as sustainability fairs, etc. to reinforce the overall theme of the community.

    And I would not have kept telling everyone what a train wreck the project was, and how the previous administration had created such a mess, which only incited other criticisms and generally negative publicity across the country and around the world.

    In summary, there is no doubt that the OV has been a series of unfortunate events, starting with the decision to make this the Olympic Village, which in turn led to the law department’s decision not to sell the land to the developer so that he could finance the project.

    While some might question why the NPA voted in camera to initially guarantee the loan, and then advance funds to the developer, as Charlie Smith recently noted, quite correctly, it really didn’t have a choice. None of us would have wanted the world’s athletes to not have had a place to stay when the Olympics began.

    (I personally thought that putting them all on a cruise ship might have been a better idea, but apparently that was considered and dismissed for security and other reasons.)

    So VV did inherit a very difficult file, and at the time, I thought that their decision to take out Fortress with lower cost financing was a bold initiative. I’m told this decision was made with advice from some very successful and clever people. That being said, none of us knew the numbers.

    But the fact remains that a lot of bad decisions have been made since VV took office, and especially over the past year, that have exacerbated the situation.

    I suspect that when the units do come to market in February, there will need to be some very significant price reductions to get the sales program underway. It will be a fine balancing act to decide how much to reduce prices, given the significant monthly holding costs, and a desire to minimize losses.

    Elsewhere I have suggested that the city should strata title the rental building to increase its value. This might add $20 million or more to the value of the 119 units. Any un-rented units might then be offered for sale as rent-to-own units.

    I would urge the city not to rent out any of the market condominiums.

    In addition to price reductions, some creative financing programs might be explored, since the city can be a bit more patient than a typical developer. These could include ‘shared equity’ or ‘shared ownership’ financing structures. For some units, we might even consider a land lease structure as another option. But this should not be necessary.

    So in answer to the question, this is what I and no doubt many others would have done. I will not pretend that the city would not still lose money. We might have. From the start I didn’t expect to get the balance of the land payment. But sadly, the city’s Property Endowment Fund is now going to lose a lot more money than might have been necessary when the decision was made to take over the financing in January 2009.

  • Tiktaalik

    @Michael Geller

    Good post. Thanks.

  • Todd

    Yes Michael, I fully agree and a very good analytical post. Thanks.

  • Kirk

    I just read this from the Vancouver Sun:

    “While he wouldn’t talk specific prices, Rennie said that last May he test-marketed units in Building 4 at around $1,400 a square foot. They didn’t move. At a reduction of 25 per cent — a figure being raised speculatively in the real estate industry — the price would be just over $1,000 a square foot or about $1 million per unit.”

    http://www.vancouversun.com/sports/Olympic+village+condos+return+market+significant+price+cuts/3902747/story.html#ixzz16p4gxg7K

    Wow. $1,000,000 super discount average price. I wonder how much the monthly maintenance fees are.

    Frances, sorry to hear about the name calling.

  • George

    Tiktaalik // Nov 30, 2010 at 3:07 pm

    The OV is a disaster but I’m not sure if Vision has done anything to exacerbate the problem
    ——————————————–
    Sadly according to new information Millennium has sought legal council to decide whether or not to sue Gregor, Meggs, and the city for defamation….they have an excellent lawyer, so obviously someone thinks Vision did have something to do with exacerbating the problem… our kids will pay for a very long time.

  • spartikus

    What new information? And defamation based on what statements?

  • Tom

    A wealthy associate recently took his daughter to have a look and possibly buy her a unit in the OV.

    The sales person there told him to “wait and come back for the deals”.

    Does this mean units are not for sale now?

    And why would a Rennie sales person send someone away who could not only afford to buy a unit, but possibly an entire building there (yes he’s thats wealthy).

    The stories out of the OV are as ridiculous as they are horrendous.

  • George

    spartikus..
    as far as I know pretty much every negative thing Vision has said publicly about the OV. Apparently Millennium has consulted with the lawyer that handled Basi/Virk case.
    We knew it would come to this eventually. The full story on AGT site.
    Not good for anyone… sigh

  • Paul

    Ahhhh, Spartikus……all questions and no answers.

    And Tom, if you were said wealthy associate, you would do due diligence before you bought wherein you would quickly discover that there were to be changes to the sales program. Would you still remove subjects or would you wait and come back later? Would you buy from someone who tried to pull a fast one on you before?

    Think a little.

  • Tessa

    Hey Francis, I’m sure you’re aware but most of us here have come to truly rely on this blog for a lot of information about city hall, and are truly thankful for the work you do, but there’s no reason not to say it again, especially when a comment like that comes in. Thanks!

  • Bill McCreery

    @ Tiktaalik 23. If I were an NPA Councilor, and as I have said on previous posts over the past few months, given the unforeseen market conditions & cost over-runs for the project I would work to see that the social housing & rental units be sold in the manner described by Michael, including committing to using the net proceeds to build new or purchase existing additional replacement social housing.

    I have also said that Vision knew from the day they were elected in November, 2008 that the Olympic Village had to be marketed & occupied as of March, 2010. Therefore, the general marketing / occupancy schedule so clearly outlined in 25 above would be a logical path to follow. And, if Michael was available, I would have retained him in addition to other knowledgeable experts to work with the Developer & Bob Rennie to create a seamless, time sensitive marketing programme. In development time is indeed of the essence.

    And, in the 1st instance, I would respect my duty & undertaking to the citizens of Vancouver to always work in their best interests.

  • Joe Just Joe

    I hate to link to your old employer, but Frances, do you think you can do a topic about the survey results. Id be interesting in reading peoples opinion on it.

    http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Vancouver+city+employees+lack+confidence+leadership+survey/3908425/story.html

  • spartikus

    Ahhhh, Spartikus……all questions and no answers.

    Was I supposed to answer something?

  • MB

    An excellent analysis, Michael. Council needs you. It is, of course, in the context of hindsight. But it’s also full of good ideas, like animating the plaza.

  • George

    Micheal

    I agree with MB excellent analysis… council does need you.

  • Tom

    Paul @33

    “Think a little.”

    Perhaps I should say the same to you.

    No the wealthy associate is not stupid, re: the price drops coming, however he’s also not the type to line up should they be dropped and people become interested.

    Whether it be the subjects being removed or subjects placed in the contract to honour “said price drop” when they occur, there was a guy in their sales centre that was worth $100 Million looking to purchase at least one unit.

    They sent him away.

    He will not be back if he has to wait in any line, and he isn’t friends with Bob Rennie so the liklihood of being let in the side door is next to none.

    It was a dumb move to let someone interested in buying, walk out the door – period.

    Think a little – eh!

  • TD

    Michael,
    now why do I have the feeling that some incompetent Vision operative will come up with exact same points you made here in their next in-camera meeting?
    Very good pouits BTW.
    This Vision bunch, put their Bahamas and shorts on, sunglasses and sunscreen lotion handy and then they bought tickets for Alaska. In winter. Vision or what?

  • Paul

    Tom,
    As a real estate professional, I can tell you that we have ways of following up, manufacturing privileged access, and creating urgency. We also tell the truth, which was exactly what happened to your friend that day. Even trying to close anyone at this point is foolish at that site.
    Please let us all know where he ends up buying.
    P.

  • WOW

    WOW!
    To Paul & Tom,

    And this is exactly why the city should have never, ever enter into a such a big mess. First, a ‘100 mill guy’ wants to buy at the asking price and he is denied!?So, when he’ll buy he will get it at the ‘discounted’ price!? So, one ‘daddy loaded’ chick, is going to get to walk her Shitzu around the Olympic Village while the taxpayers are going to help her with a generous hand-out? That’s just wrong. To both, let US know how he ends up buying. Geez!